I'm happy to say that since my last post Occupy Edmonton is doing very well. Edmonton (and the whole world) showed tremendous support tonight. I dare say Occupy Edmonton is nearing the amount of critical mass it needs to carry forward as a major movement. But where to?
All around the world it seems this is becoming the next big question: What is next for the Occupy movement? Will they start political parties? Will they make demands? I've been thinking about it for sometime from a theoretical point-of-view.
Some of the people who I talked with might remember me saying that ending compound interest for instance might be a good demand. But as this week has gone on I started asking the question 'why should there be demands?' What the people are upset about is obvious. Forcing them to make demands is almost an act of submission in itself, just wrapped in a confidence bow. Sure specifics need to be provided, by why is all of the onus on the people to come up with a credible "societal equitable business plan" and present it to big business/government when they would have us believe they make the big bucks because only they know how to make the big decisions or plan the big plans.
Obviously this stance by the system is completely contradictory. It serves a purpose though, it allows them to play both sides of the field. Say Occupy does make a plan or demands and we present them; it's highly likely the system comes back and says that it had it's "experts" analyze our plan and it simply won't work for one reason or another. When dealing with a systemic issue as large as we are the number of straw-man arguments is endless, there are countless ways we could restructure and everyone has a different idea what that restructuring looks like. Its simple to come up with an argument against any system, as the perfect system is yet to be invented. If no demands are made at all we make an argument for the system in that "we do not know what we want". This isn't desirable either.
So seemingly both avenues are cut off. But wait! There is another!! What if the demand is Occupy itself? Think about it. What if instead of demanding what the people need, the people are actually just doing what the people need? Could our society (for now mostly the U.S. although Canada's turn is coming soon) actually have already reached a point where confidence in the system is so low the people are simply shedding it?
Look at the U.S. right now, Occupy tent cities everywhere. They are beginning to turn into miniature self-governed communities. If these continue to grow.. what significance is the government anyway? If the government can't take care of the people and is just a revolving door and shell game with the banks, what good is it? What service exactly is it providing?
This week it occurred to me that the world just might have been looking in the wrong spot. While we were sitting and waiting for demands, we witnessed the birth of a globally supported, internet based governing system. A system based on direct democracy and consensus.
Lets be honest here and admit society is collapsing, and everything is not ok. As a society we have neglected and underestimated many fundamentals to life which have been lost in our current standard of living. Perhaps without even realizing it the human race is already adapting for the inevitable low-energy future just around the corner.
Katie from OccupyYEG says "As one voice, and one individual I am proud to state, I am a part of the Occupy Revolution. I will not stand silent, I will not relocate and I will not give up. We do not have hope, we are hope."
Maybe more than she even knows.
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Monday, 24 October 2011
Tuesday, 27 September 2011
My solution to the Edmonton arena debate | #yegarena
Ugh, this arena debate just isn't going away. Now it appears the city wants to preemptively buy the land for 25million (on top of the arena's tag price, and infrastructure costs). Some of the ignorant comments in the live chat such as "Like Nike, Just Do It!" shows the severely irrational mentality behind justifying this frivolous expense.
So I'm going to propose a plan that should make everyone happy. It will transfer the risk to those invested in the arena. It will provide returns in as secure a sense as the free market can provide. It will leave the city free to spend it's money on the many high-grade infrastructure upgrades that will be needed should funding be raised. Finally it will give Edmontonian's (or other Albertans, probably open to other investors too) who want to build up, have input, and support the arena a direct way to do this.
Now before I explain this plan, I am in no way vouching for the success of the project itself. Even if this approach were taken, I would not be investing my own money expecting a return. Like any investment this one would be folly to the market's mood and if you read my other posts on this blog my long term outlook for the current global economic system is clear. However that aside, let's see how we can solve everyone's issues here.
First, the main arguments for and against (as I understand them):
Right now it's estimated that the cost is $450 million broken down:
Under this model, I also would not be *AS* opposed to city investment in the arena as there would be a direct return and we'd be able to cash out and have another player buy the shares. This would also give the hockey players themselves a chance to invest in the stadium they play in, giving them direct input. Other investors, and hockey fans would get direct input by holding shares.
So lets see, this solves the issue of Katz circumventing the free market system in hopes of placing himself in a monopoly. If he wants a non-compete clause with Northlands that is his business, but it's not the city's business to give him an edge over an already established business and then demand a monopoly. It solves the issue that the city is getting very little in return as like any other investor it could get as much a return as anyone else depending on free market risk. It places all risk and reward directly on the shoulders of those with direct interest in the success of a luxury item. I personally do not believe with the current credit crisis that an arena will increase growth, so why should I personally be on the hook with all risk and no reward? This mitigates that for me, and also leaves those who think that like Nike "Just Do It" to cover the cost. They might then make financial decisions off information instead of propaganda slogans.
Under this proposal all meetings would need to be 100% transparent to convince investors it's a viable opportunity. Good bye shadowy city counsel meetings, it should be 100% public and this system would ensure that.
When it comes to infrastructure upgrading, the city would have a lot more resources in terms of state of the art infrastructure without an already large commitment to the facility itself, and any commitment like I said would provide direct returns thus topping up the infrastructure fund if the city chooses to put it there.
Since everything on the pro-side is theoretical or fan-based, I don't see why it doesn't meet the needs. It certainly would show Edmontonians how much Katz loves us and the city by giving us direct input. It would give the expected commercial services the chance to have a direct investment in the facility as well.
That's my idea, I'll be refining it as I think about it more, but I think this model pretty well solves all of the major issues and controversies regarding the arena and should make everyone happy, or at least get their happiness out of city council’s hands as they are supposed to work for all people and any deal brokered by the city isn't going to work for everyone.
I am still refining this solution, so please comment with your constructive criticism. Additional factors I should consider, whatever...
So I'm going to propose a plan that should make everyone happy. It will transfer the risk to those invested in the arena. It will provide returns in as secure a sense as the free market can provide. It will leave the city free to spend it's money on the many high-grade infrastructure upgrades that will be needed should funding be raised. Finally it will give Edmontonian's (or other Albertans, probably open to other investors too) who want to build up, have input, and support the arena a direct way to do this.
Now before I explain this plan, I am in no way vouching for the success of the project itself. Even if this approach were taken, I would not be investing my own money expecting a return. Like any investment this one would be folly to the market's mood and if you read my other posts on this blog my long term outlook for the current global economic system is clear. However that aside, let's see how we can solve everyone's issues here.
First, the main arguments for and against (as I understand them):
- Katz should be using the free market if he is certain about the return on investment.
- Maintenance alone is not worth 100% of return on investment.
- The questionable non-compete clause.
- We are in a deficit and the arena is a luxury item.
- The meetings are too secretive.
- Infrastructure upgrading
- It's believed the arena will contribute to revitalizing downtown.
- The costs to renovate/modernize Rexall are also high.
- The Oilers might leave without an upgraded facility.
- The facility would probably get heavy use by non-hockey events.
- There are high hopes that an arena will springboard an expansion in commercial service in the area.
- It's a 1 time opportunity for the city.
- If not an arena, then what?
- And finally, Katz says he loves Edmonton.
Right now it's estimated that the cost is $450 million broken down:
- $100 from Katz Group.
- $125 directly from city.
- $125 loan from the city, which will be paid back with a utility fee in the future.
- $100 is remaining without a source.
Under this model, I also would not be *AS* opposed to city investment in the arena as there would be a direct return and we'd be able to cash out and have another player buy the shares. This would also give the hockey players themselves a chance to invest in the stadium they play in, giving them direct input. Other investors, and hockey fans would get direct input by holding shares.
So lets see, this solves the issue of Katz circumventing the free market system in hopes of placing himself in a monopoly. If he wants a non-compete clause with Northlands that is his business, but it's not the city's business to give him an edge over an already established business and then demand a monopoly. It solves the issue that the city is getting very little in return as like any other investor it could get as much a return as anyone else depending on free market risk. It places all risk and reward directly on the shoulders of those with direct interest in the success of a luxury item. I personally do not believe with the current credit crisis that an arena will increase growth, so why should I personally be on the hook with all risk and no reward? This mitigates that for me, and also leaves those who think that like Nike "Just Do It" to cover the cost. They might then make financial decisions off information instead of propaganda slogans.
Under this proposal all meetings would need to be 100% transparent to convince investors it's a viable opportunity. Good bye shadowy city counsel meetings, it should be 100% public and this system would ensure that.
When it comes to infrastructure upgrading, the city would have a lot more resources in terms of state of the art infrastructure without an already large commitment to the facility itself, and any commitment like I said would provide direct returns thus topping up the infrastructure fund if the city chooses to put it there.
Since everything on the pro-side is theoretical or fan-based, I don't see why it doesn't meet the needs. It certainly would show Edmontonians how much Katz loves us and the city by giving us direct input. It would give the expected commercial services the chance to have a direct investment in the facility as well.
That's my idea, I'll be refining it as I think about it more, but I think this model pretty well solves all of the major issues and controversies regarding the arena and should make everyone happy, or at least get their happiness out of city council’s hands as they are supposed to work for all people and any deal brokered by the city isn't going to work for everyone.
I am still refining this solution, so please comment with your constructive criticism. Additional factors I should consider, whatever...
Saturday, 10 September 2011
In a war of ideology, everyone loses
Not long ago a naive younger version of myself decided he would be ‘left-wing’. For many years I subscribed to this ideology. I amongst many others took part in partisan flame-wars on news article comments. “Everyone on the right doesn’t have a clue”, I told myself.
Five years later, my perspective has changed considerably. I no longer identify with any ideology. Today I rarely even bother to look at what our politicians are saying, because I already know what they are saying. They are promoting whatever ideology they have subscribed to. They will paint today’s issues with a partisan brush and explain how only their ideology can work. It seems that no matter what sort of problem society encounters all it will take to solve it is a subscription to a specific ideology.
Reality tends to dictate though, that whatever your plan is unforseen circumstances will likely screw with it. This is why life on this planet is adaptive. Life adapts to the circumstances of which it finds itself in. In the last 100 years, with the advent of the petroleum based society which arguably for the first time in human history has provided more surplus than we know how to handle a new problem emerged. How do we control and distribute these resources? It is from this question that the modern left and right ideologies formed. Free market vs. Communism.
Today the world faces vastly different problems than it did 100 years ago and yet we continue to frame all debates within these two very limited views on society. These views are not adaptive, they do not acount for unforseen circumstances. No one who subscribes to these views truly lives by either of them 100%. Many of those on the right are all too happy during a natural disaster to have governmental disaster relief. Take for instance the recent fire in ultra-conservative Alberta. Even though the government is giving money for rebuilding efforts no one is saying this defies the free market response. Albertans have been accepting of government intervention in this unforseen circumstance.
When push comes to shove in society, ideology goes out the window in favour of critical thinking. The rules of our virtual ideologies do not apply when the “greater good” is deemed imminently threatened. When a crisis is occurring most people are focused on what needs to be done, not who and how they are going to do it. These considerations do not matter in a crisis, there’s a job to be done and someone’s got to do it.
Yet when the crisis subsides the ideologies take hold again. The petty arguing between citizens resumes over petty issues. Who they think should provide health care, the government or corporations for instance. Both sides overlook the fact they both want the best healthcare to be provided, and that should be the primary concern or ‘root’ problem to solve.
Anyone who has ever debated me in politics may or may not have noticed that I refuse to use political labels. When I discuss issues you will not hear the words socialism, capitalism, etc, etc. I don’t use them because they don’t really mean anything when there is a problem to solve.
Since I’m a programmer, I will explain this using a programming analogy. Many people today have a favorite O/S of which you can find flame wars all over the internet debating which is “better”. Few of these arguments though put the phrase “better” in a circumstance.
IE:
“Windows is better for new users.”
“Linux is better for security professionals.”
“Android is better for embedded devices.”
Instead most of these discussions are absolutes, “Windows is better.”
When I’m approached for a development contract, my first question is always “what is the exact problem you are trying to solve?”. I don’t ask what their favorite O/S is, or if they have a preferred language. The reason? The preferred language or platform may not be the best choice for the particular problem. You might want a desktop app to manage your database, but I insist a centralized corporate website is better!
I can tell them what is the best solution to their problem because I evaluate all tools available without bias. Just because I do not like Windows does not mean I automatically rule out Windows as a tool to solve problems. This is the approach that is needed today in politics. As a society we must learn to address the root problem, and use all tools available to do it. Just as Linux is not the best O/S for every situation, the left (or right) is not always the best ideology for a given situation.
What we need to do to solve today’s problems is focus on critical thinking first and foremost. Not until all available tools are given equal weight will a true solution to our problems emerge. I don’t just mean left and right either, as I mentioned before these ideologies are mostly about resource distribution. None of the mainstream ideologies account for things like “finite resources”, instead opting for infintie growth. These ideologies were developed at a time when things like oil production and consumption might have been a sidenote on someone’s napkin at best. They were developed at a time when the majority of economic activity took place within a countries borders. We need to fully step back and address today’s problems without bias. We need to be open to modern technology, and the infinite amount of tools available to us. We need to understand that today’s world is neither socialist, nor capitalist.
Wednesday, 7 September 2011
Another sleepless night
It's 3:45am. For the past week I've had a churning in my stomach I can't shake, and with it I can't sleep. So much is on my mind, but so much is always on my mind -- why should this week be any different? So I'm going to just sit here, and write in my little space on the internet. I don't know yet even what I'm going to write about.
I can almost sense that the moment of just utter economic panic is closing in now. Since 9/11 who could have believed what we've seen? What we've witnessed? The G20s to riots in London. An utter war rampage in which now it's "nothing big" when we start attacking or invading a new country, It's seemingly become our right, and our right alone (NATOs) to globally police the world. I'm sick of it, seriously plain sick of it. Is this really all our "civilized" and "progressive" society is going to do? Wage war for the earth's remaining petroleum reserves while enslaving the future generations to debt servitude? These days it sure seems like it. So many people I speak to are so adjusted to the constant atmosphere of war and terror played on repeat to us through our discount Chinese slave labour TV screens.
Even when presented with extreme contradiction, such as NATO claiming to be worried about Al-Qaeda gaining access to Libya's weapon arsenal while simultaneously admitting that the "rebel" leader has links to Al-Qaeda! And people seriously believe this crap about our "war on terror"? Get over yourselves and the false sense of reality you have. Our leaders are liars.
This post isn't about Libya though, I still don't know what it's about. Maybe it's about the fact that the number of problems the world has on it's plate is overwhelming? Or maybe it's about the fact these problems are being left to a generation that will have no resources while the baby boomers drool over their stock portfolios and all of the monopoly money they think it will bring? Or how 10 years later it's perfectly O.K. that civil servants and the population was lied to about dust not being toxic from 9/11? The number of inconsistencies, lies, and glaring holes in not just 9/11 but the entire economic and political systems continue to mount and where is our Canadian voice? I'm still not hearing it. We are not going to be able to vote to fix these issues. Not at a federal level at least. The corruption of our system is utter and complete to the point where deception and propaganda infiltrates our lives almost 24/7. Marketing agencies are on a constant search to see where they can put ads next to get in your face. Cable companies continue to extend the time given to ads and then wonder why people are leaving their services. It's amazing anyone manages to end the day having any independent thoughts that weren't baked up for them by a public relations team.
The double-think in our world I believe can literally drive a non-adjusted person insane. If your memory is longer than 5 years then watch out; the plain criminality and denial can be a lot to handle. But no, none of these things are what is keeping me up tonight. So, what could it be?
I don't get this feeling often, maybe its some sort of super-power? I wish. It just feels like a climax of unseen proportions is barreling our way. Today was an insane news day. I'm still processing everything and trying to understand it. It seems Canada is stepping up it's police state. Two announcements today: Stephen Harper is predictably reinstating the charter violating anti-terror laws and in Vancouver's riot report, the "recommendations" certainly raise some suspicions. Take note of the vague terms such as 'hooligan demographic'. Do you know what that is? It's anyone, like "terrorist". I find it interesting in light of London which may arguably have the most CCTV cameras in the entire world and still had the recent riot, CCTV is still being recommended for riot prevention. Watch how fast 'hooligan' and 'terrorist' become one and the same. The writing is all over the wall at this point, Canadians really need to start noticing the path we are on. If you have never seen it, you need to see Into the fire -- this is their preparation for whatever is in store. I've been writing now for some time about how Canada will soon be in the same economic boat as the other western powers, does it still seem so unbelievable? If it does I'm sorry to say, but you have been brainwashed. Repeated statements such as 'economic stability' and all the other crap these politicians spout might sound fancy, but critically think about what they have said. Are they saying anything? Our banks are stable because we have "regulations"? Give me a break; we use fractional reserve banking, fiat currency and compound interest just like every other ponzi fiat economy. They are not stable, Canada's just in a different spot in the economic food chain. Just today I read an article about how we had better drop our "hostile corporate takeover" regulations. "Hostile takeovers in the U.S. are a lot more difficult" -- I almost pissed my pants laughing. Harder for who? Those not on the inside.
Am i rambling? I can't even tell anymore. There are so many problems, but in reality they are all one problem. A failed naked system, an emperor not only with no clothes, but no money in the bank either. The world's last economic hope of China has just reported that they anticipate a slowdown of growth in their economy. Probably because they are short on energy to grow it. It's simple logic, you see. But does either article point to the conclusions of the other? No. Everything is compartmentalized and packaged with a neat little bow for your half-thought out consumption.
I can feel tensions in my generation are growing. It's not a simple anger boiled around politics or economics. It's a complex, deep seeded anger, that either consciously or unconsciously is on every youths mind. When we see articles today about the baby boomer pensions crisis it's pretty well a huge red flag of hopelessness for future generations already debt ridden. If anyone from my generation believes there will ever be a pension waiting for them, it's a false belief. Maybe it's more faith than belief. Or even normalcy? My generation has been taught that you work hard, live it good, then retire. It's another form of double-think, we are constantly told by the system that everything is ok, and yet if there is a debt crisis now, a pension crisis now, what hope do we have in 40 years? This feeling of hopelessness is inherently political. It really makes me angry when simple-minded supporters of this corruption boil down events like the London or Vancouver riots to simple phrases. One of the more common one's I heard was "Well what do you mean they're poor? They've all got ipods and are tweeting.". Well what do you expect? this comes back to the 24/7 corporate invasion into our life. Madness that can drive actions like this. This isn't 1991, you don't need to be rich to have a cellphone, and most carriers are more than happy to sign multi-year contracts providing the phones for free. Just like how governments keep adjusting the CPI so that real inflation is hidden. Oh the price of food went up? That's ok, kids will just buy more Ipods because they are cheaper. This is the lunacy of the system we surround ourselves with, and then wonder why it's blowing up in our face.
The response from the system is becoming obvious. A campaign against western youth is well underway. The system knows we are long overdue for a generational revolution, and it just doesn't want to let go. It'll come none-the-less though, it's inevitable. Just as civil unrest has spread like wildfire in Europe and the Arab nations, it will be here too. One day in your streets you will see events like this for yourself. They are gearing up for a war against the generation they've stolen everything from. They know most of us will figure it out one day, and when that day comes the propaganda against them will be in full effect.
I'm going to try to sleep now.
I can almost sense that the moment of just utter economic panic is closing in now. Since 9/11 who could have believed what we've seen? What we've witnessed? The G20s to riots in London. An utter war rampage in which now it's "nothing big" when we start attacking or invading a new country, It's seemingly become our right, and our right alone (NATOs) to globally police the world. I'm sick of it, seriously plain sick of it. Is this really all our "civilized" and "progressive" society is going to do? Wage war for the earth's remaining petroleum reserves while enslaving the future generations to debt servitude? These days it sure seems like it. So many people I speak to are so adjusted to the constant atmosphere of war and terror played on repeat to us through our discount Chinese slave labour TV screens.
Even when presented with extreme contradiction, such as NATO claiming to be worried about Al-Qaeda gaining access to Libya's weapon arsenal while simultaneously admitting that the "rebel" leader has links to Al-Qaeda! And people seriously believe this crap about our "war on terror"? Get over yourselves and the false sense of reality you have. Our leaders are liars.
This post isn't about Libya though, I still don't know what it's about. Maybe it's about the fact that the number of problems the world has on it's plate is overwhelming? Or maybe it's about the fact these problems are being left to a generation that will have no resources while the baby boomers drool over their stock portfolios and all of the monopoly money they think it will bring? Or how 10 years later it's perfectly O.K. that civil servants and the population was lied to about dust not being toxic from 9/11? The number of inconsistencies, lies, and glaring holes in not just 9/11 but the entire economic and political systems continue to mount and where is our Canadian voice? I'm still not hearing it. We are not going to be able to vote to fix these issues. Not at a federal level at least. The corruption of our system is utter and complete to the point where deception and propaganda infiltrates our lives almost 24/7. Marketing agencies are on a constant search to see where they can put ads next to get in your face. Cable companies continue to extend the time given to ads and then wonder why people are leaving their services. It's amazing anyone manages to end the day having any independent thoughts that weren't baked up for them by a public relations team.
The double-think in our world I believe can literally drive a non-adjusted person insane. If your memory is longer than 5 years then watch out; the plain criminality and denial can be a lot to handle. But no, none of these things are what is keeping me up tonight. So, what could it be?
I don't get this feeling often, maybe its some sort of super-power? I wish. It just feels like a climax of unseen proportions is barreling our way. Today was an insane news day. I'm still processing everything and trying to understand it. It seems Canada is stepping up it's police state. Two announcements today: Stephen Harper is predictably reinstating the charter violating anti-terror laws and in Vancouver's riot report, the "recommendations" certainly raise some suspicions. Take note of the vague terms such as 'hooligan demographic'. Do you know what that is? It's anyone, like "terrorist". I find it interesting in light of London which may arguably have the most CCTV cameras in the entire world and still had the recent riot, CCTV is still being recommended for riot prevention. Watch how fast 'hooligan' and 'terrorist' become one and the same. The writing is all over the wall at this point, Canadians really need to start noticing the path we are on. If you have never seen it, you need to see Into the fire -- this is their preparation for whatever is in store. I've been writing now for some time about how Canada will soon be in the same economic boat as the other western powers, does it still seem so unbelievable? If it does I'm sorry to say, but you have been brainwashed. Repeated statements such as 'economic stability' and all the other crap these politicians spout might sound fancy, but critically think about what they have said. Are they saying anything? Our banks are stable because we have "regulations"? Give me a break; we use fractional reserve banking, fiat currency and compound interest just like every other ponzi fiat economy. They are not stable, Canada's just in a different spot in the economic food chain. Just today I read an article about how we had better drop our "hostile corporate takeover" regulations. "Hostile takeovers in the U.S. are a lot more difficult" -- I almost pissed my pants laughing. Harder for who? Those not on the inside.
Am i rambling? I can't even tell anymore. There are so many problems, but in reality they are all one problem. A failed naked system, an emperor not only with no clothes, but no money in the bank either. The world's last economic hope of China has just reported that they anticipate a slowdown of growth in their economy. Probably because they are short on energy to grow it. It's simple logic, you see. But does either article point to the conclusions of the other? No. Everything is compartmentalized and packaged with a neat little bow for your half-thought out consumption.
I can feel tensions in my generation are growing. It's not a simple anger boiled around politics or economics. It's a complex, deep seeded anger, that either consciously or unconsciously is on every youths mind. When we see articles today about the baby boomer pensions crisis it's pretty well a huge red flag of hopelessness for future generations already debt ridden. If anyone from my generation believes there will ever be a pension waiting for them, it's a false belief. Maybe it's more faith than belief. Or even normalcy? My generation has been taught that you work hard, live it good, then retire. It's another form of double-think, we are constantly told by the system that everything is ok, and yet if there is a debt crisis now, a pension crisis now, what hope do we have in 40 years? This feeling of hopelessness is inherently political. It really makes me angry when simple-minded supporters of this corruption boil down events like the London or Vancouver riots to simple phrases. One of the more common one's I heard was "Well what do you mean they're poor? They've all got ipods and are tweeting.". Well what do you expect? this comes back to the 24/7 corporate invasion into our life. Madness that can drive actions like this. This isn't 1991, you don't need to be rich to have a cellphone, and most carriers are more than happy to sign multi-year contracts providing the phones for free. Just like how governments keep adjusting the CPI so that real inflation is hidden. Oh the price of food went up? That's ok, kids will just buy more Ipods because they are cheaper. This is the lunacy of the system we surround ourselves with, and then wonder why it's blowing up in our face.
The response from the system is becoming obvious. A campaign against western youth is well underway. The system knows we are long overdue for a generational revolution, and it just doesn't want to let go. It'll come none-the-less though, it's inevitable. Just as civil unrest has spread like wildfire in Europe and the Arab nations, it will be here too. One day in your streets you will see events like this for yourself. They are gearing up for a war against the generation they've stolen everything from. They know most of us will figure it out one day, and when that day comes the propaganda against them will be in full effect.
I'm going to try to sleep now.
Thursday, 18 August 2011
Canada: A country in economic denial
Well the market since the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt has been a fun ride huh? Gold continues to set what seem like daily records while stocks are "only slightly higher than a decade ago". But all of these lightning fast developments have not shaken the faith Canadians (and in particular, Albertans) have in the positive outlook on the economy. Canadians still believe that the politicians we call leaders had "no idea" this was going to happen. We are a country in economic denial.
Psychologically it is no different than when a wealthy business man looses their job, their house, and will continue to dress in suits even though they live in a car. This is becoming commonplace amongst the U.S. population whose jobless outlook is bleaker by the day. It is indeed a psychological issue, and is quite prominent amongst our population too.
My prediction wasn't the work of nostradamus. It was a simple conclusion based on a trend being set by current events; the outcome was obvious and I explained briefly the logic to reach the conclusion. All it takes to make such a prediction is to stay current with events, and to think for yourself. The sender of this message obviously hasn't actually read anything I've written, otherwise he would be well aware that millions in fiat money is just what I have been saying it is. Worthless. Why would I want it? I write what I write because it is what I think, and I strongly *hope* that at least a few Albertans and Canadians were inspired to prepare for their futures from my words; that is all, not money, nor twitter followers. I personally don't care if you listen to me or not -- ultimately we are all in charge of our lives, but what we all have in common is that we are on the Canadian economic titanic together. It is your choice whether you want to believe this ship isn't sinkable or not, I surely won't convince you otherwise if you believe it's unsinkable in the first place.
Of course, having provincial and federal governments that also are in denial are not helping matters. Alberta has announced that it's deficit is in better shape than first thought. Of course these numbers are all based on events before the U.S. downgrade during a period where oil was sky-rocketing. As I have reiterated over and over and over again; the oilsands can *ONLY* bring in a profit during large upward moves and it is unlikely with world-wide economic growth outlooks that we will see $120 oil again this year, and it will be rare that we see $100. I predict the price will remain between $80-$100 for the rest of the year. This of course means all of the profit predictions being made by the Alberta government are based on the Q1 run up in oil prices. again as I've explained many times though, input costs take longer to catch up to the price of oil than profits do and once the bar is set for $80-$100 input costs all of those market riding profits are going to dry up. We've already seen this happen once before, remember when $70 was "high and profitable"? Now the government dreads a $70 oil price. It's also a one way road, meaning that input costs don't come down. What happens instead? the projects shut down. The Alberta and Federal governments have been playing Russian roulette with the Albertan (and Canadian) economies with the full support of an uninformed population in economic denial. They are uninformed because an informed populace would have seen the direct connection between Alberta's "growth" in the last few years and the U.S. QE programs. An informed populace would have noticed how in 2008 we lost hundreds of thousands of jobs the moment injections of cash from the U.S. stopped flowing into American businesses in Canada.
As I often say to my friends "if Canada was any other country [without our vast natural resources], we'd be so broke we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves". We may quite possibly be the worst money managers in the first world. We simply don't realize it because theres always more "oil in the ground" or "fish in the sea" to replace the funds we squander and not to mention our number 1 trading partner can (for the moment) print all the money they need to pay us. If Canada properly managed it's resources, we'd all be living like kings. Instead we've opted to "sell the pond, instead of the fish" and at bargain basement rates at that. From the actual issuance of our currency, to the oilsands, to our nuclear industry it is safe to say that Canada is "For Sale" and it is through these bottom basement price sales that Canada has been able to lie about the amount of foreign business we are loosing due to global economic circumstances. At least up until now.
Canada, we are a country in economic denial. Time to face reality.
Psychologically it is no different than when a wealthy business man looses their job, their house, and will continue to dress in suits even though they live in a car. This is becoming commonplace amongst the U.S. population whose jobless outlook is bleaker by the day. It is indeed a psychological issue, and is quite prominent amongst our population too.
 |
| No one believed the titanic could sink either... |
For instance, last week when I tweeted that I had successfully predicted the Bank of Canada interest rate dilemma i received an overly rude message from a fellow Albertan which said "Being essentially the smartest man alive, I'm sure you've turned all your nostradamus like predictions into millions ". This is a typical reaction from someone that is in denial, and finds the topics I write about truly frightening. So frightening that to effectively deal with them he must fantasize about nostradamus like "fortune tellers", which normally are quite crazy to put his mind at ease. For it is simply impossible that Canada is not in the pristine economic shape it has been claiming and anyone with evidence or opinions to the contrary must be crazy.
Of course, having provincial and federal governments that also are in denial are not helping matters. Alberta has announced that it's deficit is in better shape than first thought. Of course these numbers are all based on events before the U.S. downgrade during a period where oil was sky-rocketing. As I have reiterated over and over and over again; the oilsands can *ONLY* bring in a profit during large upward moves and it is unlikely with world-wide economic growth outlooks that we will see $120 oil again this year, and it will be rare that we see $100. I predict the price will remain between $80-$100 for the rest of the year. This of course means all of the profit predictions being made by the Alberta government are based on the Q1 run up in oil prices. again as I've explained many times though, input costs take longer to catch up to the price of oil than profits do and once the bar is set for $80-$100 input costs all of those market riding profits are going to dry up. We've already seen this happen once before, remember when $70 was "high and profitable"? Now the government dreads a $70 oil price. It's also a one way road, meaning that input costs don't come down. What happens instead? the projects shut down. The Alberta and Federal governments have been playing Russian roulette with the Albertan (and Canadian) economies with the full support of an uninformed population in economic denial. They are uninformed because an informed populace would have seen the direct connection between Alberta's "growth" in the last few years and the U.S. QE programs. An informed populace would have noticed how in 2008 we lost hundreds of thousands of jobs the moment injections of cash from the U.S. stopped flowing into American businesses in Canada.
As I often say to my friends "if Canada was any other country [without our vast natural resources], we'd be so broke we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves". We may quite possibly be the worst money managers in the first world. We simply don't realize it because theres always more "oil in the ground" or "fish in the sea" to replace the funds we squander and not to mention our number 1 trading partner can (for the moment) print all the money they need to pay us. If Canada properly managed it's resources, we'd all be living like kings. Instead we've opted to "sell the pond, instead of the fish" and at bargain basement rates at that. From the actual issuance of our currency, to the oilsands, to our nuclear industry it is safe to say that Canada is "For Sale" and it is through these bottom basement price sales that Canada has been able to lie about the amount of foreign business we are loosing due to global economic circumstances. At least up until now.
Canada, we are a country in economic denial. Time to face reality.
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Canada's Economy: The Good, The Bad, and the Bullshit.
Seems to be a lot of confusion out there about why exactly Canada's economy isn't entirely under water like the rest of the world. Is it Conservative policy, was it Liberal policy? No one seems to really know, and both parties claim it was their doing.
Reality Check: The people make the economy and not the politicians. So in this article I will explain to you why our economy is currently percieved as being stable (which in reality it is not anymore stable than the currencies we depend on).
Canadians have all heard the stories about how "stable" our banking system is. The reality couldn't be further from the truth and a little known fact is our banks were bailed out by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This was an under the table deal which was only revealed this year and it was on top of the Canadian stimulus package put forth by the Harper Government and the Liberals. It coincidently didn't make Canadian news, and I'm sure most people reading this never heard about it. You were never meant to hear about it as it would fly directly in the face of the 'deep integration' plans currently underway.
Now I know my detractors will point at the "AAA" rating of our banks in the article and simply say they were just looking for more profit, so let me remind you the banks that failed in the U.S. all had "AAA" ratings. Rating agencies are run by the ratees. This should be obvious given that the S&P is only just now warning about U.S. debt even though U.S. debt has been a problem for awhile. The S&P is only now saying something because their credibility is being seriously questioned by those who bought into the USD koolaid.
So what's so great about the Canadian economy? Well we export resources, and this isn't because of political policy in the last few years. We are one of the few energy exporting countries left, in fact just recently Russia announced it would be cutting off petroleum exports in the month of May. This is just one more sign that the dawn of the post-petroleum age has begun due to peak oil.
What is bad about our economy? Well, about 60% of our economy relies on trade with the U.S. We give them valuable resources, and they give us USD. Unfortunately the USD continues to push towards record lows due to the QE programs while gold continues to push for new record highs. So what exactly is Canada getting for it's valuable resources? Not much. We are trading resources that are only increasing in value, for worthless digital paper that is not worth the paper it's not printed on, and is also decreasing in value. Sound like a good deal to you? Well it gets better.
What does Canada use to import pretty well everything? USD. Unfortunately for us, China has begun dumping the USD meaning that as our politicians push for more integrated trade between the U.S. and Canada, the rest of the world is trying to figure out how to dump the U.S. and not get stuck holding the empty bag. Canada will be the empty bag holder, as none of our politicians have the political will to say no to the United States. In other words, all 4 politicians telling us the economy will be fine are completely full of shit. We have no control over the economy, we are an exporting nation. This means as long as there are buyers, we can be sellers -- but if no one is buying, we won't be selling. We experienced this briefly in 2008 before the U.S. initiated the TARP programs.
So Canada, we have a big decision ahead of us. Do we decouple the CAD from the USD, effectively cutting off trade with them, but returning our dollar to a reasonable value? Or do we keep the trade going by devaluing our own currency and thrusting 8% or more inflation on Canadian citizens. I'll be honest, neither option is without it's downfalls. We will not escape this crisis pain-free.
* Updated | 11/09/2011:The decision is now ahead of us. As I predicted when I wrote this article on April 30th (posted just after midnight on May 1st), Canada is faced with a decision on whether to break the peg to the USD. Raising interest rates would prevent the inflation I mentioned (for a time) at the cost of our exports to the United States. However, as I mentioned in 'Miss Canada' our political "leaders" have no political will and this probably won't happen. This includes the NDP which voted alongside the Liberals and Conservatives to continue our illegal war against Lybia, in which we are actually backing Al-Qaeda. They are all puppets.
* Updated | 18/09/2011: Surprise, surprise, the truth about Canadian banks is coming out. Like I said, our banks are only as stable as the currencies we depend on. Look around the world... all of them are failing.
Canada is a country in economic denial.
Reality Check: The people make the economy and not the politicians. So in this article I will explain to you why our economy is currently percieved as being stable (which in reality it is not anymore stable than the currencies we depend on).
Canadians have all heard the stories about how "stable" our banking system is. The reality couldn't be further from the truth and a little known fact is our banks were bailed out by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This was an under the table deal which was only revealed this year and it was on top of the Canadian stimulus package put forth by the Harper Government and the Liberals. It coincidently didn't make Canadian news, and I'm sure most people reading this never heard about it. You were never meant to hear about it as it would fly directly in the face of the 'deep integration' plans currently underway.
Now I know my detractors will point at the "AAA" rating of our banks in the article and simply say they were just looking for more profit, so let me remind you the banks that failed in the U.S. all had "AAA" ratings. Rating agencies are run by the ratees. This should be obvious given that the S&P is only just now warning about U.S. debt even though U.S. debt has been a problem for awhile. The S&P is only now saying something because their credibility is being seriously questioned by those who bought into the USD koolaid.
So what's so great about the Canadian economy? Well we export resources, and this isn't because of political policy in the last few years. We are one of the few energy exporting countries left, in fact just recently Russia announced it would be cutting off petroleum exports in the month of May. This is just one more sign that the dawn of the post-petroleum age has begun due to peak oil.
What is bad about our economy? Well, about 60% of our economy relies on trade with the U.S. We give them valuable resources, and they give us USD. Unfortunately the USD continues to push towards record lows due to the QE programs while gold continues to push for new record highs. So what exactly is Canada getting for it's valuable resources? Not much. We are trading resources that are only increasing in value, for worthless digital paper that is not worth the paper it's not printed on, and is also decreasing in value. Sound like a good deal to you? Well it gets better.
What does Canada use to import pretty well everything? USD. Unfortunately for us, China has begun dumping the USD meaning that as our politicians push for more integrated trade between the U.S. and Canada, the rest of the world is trying to figure out how to dump the U.S. and not get stuck holding the empty bag. Canada will be the empty bag holder, as none of our politicians have the political will to say no to the United States. In other words, all 4 politicians telling us the economy will be fine are completely full of shit. We have no control over the economy, we are an exporting nation. This means as long as there are buyers, we can be sellers -- but if no one is buying, we won't be selling. We experienced this briefly in 2008 before the U.S. initiated the TARP programs.
So Canada, we have a big decision ahead of us. Do we decouple the CAD from the USD, effectively cutting off trade with them, but returning our dollar to a reasonable value? Or do we keep the trade going by devaluing our own currency and thrusting 8% or more inflation on Canadian citizens. I'll be honest, neither option is without it's downfalls. We will not escape this crisis pain-free.
* Updated | 11/09/2011:The decision is now ahead of us. As I predicted when I wrote this article on April 30th (posted just after midnight on May 1st), Canada is faced with a decision on whether to break the peg to the USD. Raising interest rates would prevent the inflation I mentioned (for a time) at the cost of our exports to the United States. However, as I mentioned in 'Miss Canada' our political "leaders" have no political will and this probably won't happen. This includes the NDP which voted alongside the Liberals and Conservatives to continue our illegal war against Lybia, in which we are actually backing Al-Qaeda. They are all puppets.
* Updated | 18/09/2011: Surprise, surprise, the truth about Canadian banks is coming out. Like I said, our banks are only as stable as the currencies we depend on. Look around the world... all of them are failing.
Canada is a country in economic denial.
Thursday, 7 April 2011
Miss Canada 2011
Here we go again, another Miss Canada contest. Leaders debates, campaign roadshows, and probably more time spent in a stylist's chair than your favorite hollywood actor. Is it any wonder we have such low voter turnout when so many Canadians are not even entirely sure how our political system works? Let alone having any faith it works at all?
Browsing comments on election articles you often will see statements such as "I'm not voting for Stephen Harper." Well just an FYI, hardly anyone in Canada is voting for Stephen Harper. You would have to be a member of his Calgary constituency. You see here in Canada, we actually don't vote for a Prime Minister, believe it or not. We don't even vote what "party" will be in power. Our MPs vote for these things and it is indeed quite possible to have a Prime Minister elected from a party not in power, as long as the house has faith in the governing body. In simple terms, we elect members of parliament and nothing else.
I know it sounds simple right, and yet here Canada is stuck in this Canada/American party politics, first-past-the-post void. Canadian elections today are more like leader popularity contests, which is funny because it is also entirely possible for the "leader" to not even have a seat in the house. This is why leaders choose a constituency that is highly likely to vote them in and favor "their party". Wouldn't it be embarrassing for Prime Minister Stephen Harper to not get elected to his seat? Yes it *could* happen in our political system. When it comes to the "party system", I believe strongly in what Gerald Celente has to say:
The RCMP are even complicit in removing media from Harper events:
Since when is it the RCMP's job to work for political campaigns in this manner? Normally we would say things like this happen in a police state but as mainstream media constantly reminds us we are not Iraq and this is not a police state, which leaves me still almost a year later without an appropriate term to call this circus:
Truth of the matter is that Canadian elections are just for our entertainment. None of the parties have any interest in explaining the real way things work. All of them have latched on to this party policy crap which is usually superficial issues that don't affect our overall agenda. Notice how during this election all work for the people has stopped to campaign, but agendas we take part in such as bombing Lybia are going ahead as scheduled. In the end no difference will be made, especially if we go with either the Conservatives or the Liberals who both have publicly stated an intention to sell Canadian sovereignty.
The Cons:
The Libs:
So you see, when it comes to what matters to those in power; on the real issues, they all agree. That is why Ignatieff is not using the G20 public inquiry as an election issue. The liberals don't want an inquiry into the rights abuses, just as much as the conservatives don't. Indeed it was the Paul Martin liberals who created the event in the first place, at which rights abuses have occurred at almost every single event held. The Liberals will focus on the costs though, to give the illusion of opposition. There are many other examples of the singular agenda between the Conservatives and Liberals.
When it comes to the NDP, they will promise the moon to get in power. But once they get in and realize the world economic state what will they do about it? The sad truth is that today, no political "party" or politician has the political will to come out and lay down the situation about the world debt collapse and peak oil even though it's obvious confidence in the economy just isn't there.Take for instance the Liberal Platform fiscal policy which states:
Canadians need to realize that we have some serious structural issues that go far beyond our partisan political bickering. Until politicians stop painting the world in rainbows, sunshine and lollipops voter apathy will only go up. Fewer and fewer people believe the tired rhetoric coming out of these people's mouths on a daily basis and I believe this trend will only continue as the world situation gets worse and increasingly contradicts the unrealistic promises in their platforms until one day there will only be one action left to take: facing reality.
| canada.com |
I know it sounds simple right, and yet here Canada is stuck in this Canada/American party politics, first-past-the-post void. Canadian elections today are more like leader popularity contests, which is funny because it is also entirely possible for the "leader" to not even have a seat in the house. This is why leaders choose a constituency that is highly likely to vote them in and favor "their party". Wouldn't it be embarrassing for Prime Minister Stephen Harper to not get elected to his seat? Yes it *could* happen in our political system. When it comes to the "party system", I believe strongly in what Gerald Celente has to say:
"they're having a party, and you're paying for it." -- Gerald CelenteThis election though has had a few interesting turns in events. everyone has heard about Harper throwing students out of his rallies. I personally don't care what he does at his rallies, it is his prerogative who attends and who does not. Whether it represents true democracy or not is debatable but in any case it is not illegal. However, what seems to be getting the good old media white-wash on this is that it is the RCMP doing these background checks:
“I was told the RCMP had done a screening and that perhaps my name was affiliated with something on Facebook or the Internet,” MacDonald told the Star. “Something that made me unfit to enter. They wouldn’t say what it was.”
The RCMP are even complicit in removing media from Harper events:
Since when is it the RCMP's job to work for political campaigns in this manner? Normally we would say things like this happen in a police state but as mainstream media constantly reminds us we are not Iraq and this is not a police state, which leaves me still almost a year later without an appropriate term to call this circus:
Truth of the matter is that Canadian elections are just for our entertainment. None of the parties have any interest in explaining the real way things work. All of them have latched on to this party policy crap which is usually superficial issues that don't affect our overall agenda. Notice how during this election all work for the people has stopped to campaign, but agendas we take part in such as bombing Lybia are going ahead as scheduled. In the end no difference will be made, especially if we go with either the Conservatives or the Liberals who both have publicly stated an intention to sell Canadian sovereignty.
The Cons:
The Libs:
So you see, when it comes to what matters to those in power; on the real issues, they all agree. That is why Ignatieff is not using the G20 public inquiry as an election issue. The liberals don't want an inquiry into the rights abuses, just as much as the conservatives don't. Indeed it was the Paul Martin liberals who created the event in the first place, at which rights abuses have occurred at almost every single event held. The Liberals will focus on the costs though, to give the illusion of opposition. There are many other examples of the singular agenda between the Conservatives and Liberals.
When it comes to the NDP, they will promise the moon to get in power. But once they get in and realize the world economic state what will they do about it? The sad truth is that today, no political "party" or politician has the political will to come out and lay down the situation about the world debt collapse and peak oil even though it's obvious confidence in the economy just isn't there.Take for instance the Liberal Platform fiscal policy which states:
A Liberal government will commit to reducing the deficit to one percent of GDP within two years, down from 3.6 percent in 2009-10. We will set subsequent, rolling targets to continue decreasing the deficit every year after that until the country is returned to surplus. Unless Canada is faced with an unexpected second recession, all fiscal planning will be consistent with this anchor."Unless Canada is faced with an unexpected second recession"? How often do you see that on a political platform? Or take Harper's flagship platform promise which might take effect in 4 years if everything is A'Ok economically. Politicians today are running on empty promises, because that is all a politician really has under their belt to offer. They then go and backup their empty statements with propaganda campaigns to keep peoples faith in a political system of all stripes and colors that has screwed them over time and time again. How many politicians does it take to change a light bulb anyway?
Canadians need to realize that we have some serious structural issues that go far beyond our partisan political bickering. Until politicians stop painting the world in rainbows, sunshine and lollipops voter apathy will only go up. Fewer and fewer people believe the tired rhetoric coming out of these people's mouths on a daily basis and I believe this trend will only continue as the world situation gets worse and increasingly contradicts the unrealistic promises in their platforms until one day there will only be one action left to take: facing reality.
Monday, 14 March 2011
Edmonton Arena pt2: The world class city myth
* UPDATED * My solution to the Arena Debate.
Ok, wtf. I write 5 articles and my 2nd and probably worst one gets the most hits? no comments? what gives?
Seriously I wrote that while having an overdose of anger, and its not very well done. So let me try this again. I *really* want to make the case here. I am not just some arena hating guy but that I strongly believe we are being convinced of something that is not economically feasible and is at the moment a ridiculous use of our resources. The previous article was really just a blend of half-assed points that really need some background to really make any sense.
You'll notice much of what I am writing on this blog is about energy and economics, particularly oil. Indeed my argument against the Katz Arena is centered around oil, or more specifically what has come to be know as the representation of oil world-wide, the U.S. dollar.
To understand why the state of their dollar matters to us Canadians and particularly to Albertans is that that is what they give us, for what we give them. We give them oil, they give us digital paper and say "this is worth something". Think about it, therefore what are Canadian dollars? Denominations of the American dollar. This is why staying near or below parity is very important for our government, preferably for the Americans they would want below parity.
Still with me? I promise this relates to the Arena, we'll be getting to that soon. Alright, so we've covered oil and the fact that oil is represented by the American dollar. Now, why does oil give the American dollar value? Well because up until recently it was the sole currency oil could be traded in, it is energy. How do we use it? In everything! In every stage of production! Oil is the engine for modern day consumption, it's not just any commodity it is the base of everything we have today.The American dollar is based of the future capacity to pay debts. If countries didn't accept American dollars, then they wouldn't have any value. They are not intrinsically valuable. It is a promise to pay. (Previously redeemable in gold). So what does Alberta get for it's oil? USD.
So how do we get materials to build say.. an Arena? Well we *pay* for the energy; both human and mechanical that is used in the process of getting them. This is where a term called "peak oil" becomes relevant, and which I am not going into here. There are many resources on the internet about peak oil, I suggest checking it out for yourself. I will say this though, Peak Oil is not Oil depletion. Anyone who implies this doesn't know what they are talking about.
Ok, almost to the arena now. You should see now why the USD collapsing is going to play a big role in the coming years. Think about all of these USD Quantative Easing, they are simply pressing buttons on a computer, making "cash", and then giving this "cash" to middle eastern countries for oil. So the U.S. presses a button, prints 1 trillion, and in return they get oil and also the work required to get that oil which likewise costs oil to provide the industry enough energy to get more oil. The same thing goes with derivative energy by the way, so don't think that there is an easy fix to this issue. Soon the CDN government will need to choose whether they go down over the cliff edge devaluation of the USD to maintain the huge trade relations or to revalue the CDN currency effectively cutting off the U.S. trade capability as it would be too expensive for them which likewise would affect our economy substantially as we saw with the brief interruption they had to their economy in 2008 which caused many Canadian auto shops to close, hundreds of thousands lost jobs.
So in either case we can expect a huge economic impact, there is no recovery, the recovery is a bubble, the final bubble you could say (pt2). A bubble of the USD itself, the international currency. There has been no recovery because you can't eat digital paper, or drive with it, it doesn't make buildings or develop new technology. With the manufacturing base in the U.S. gone, they are literally giving the world nothing in turn for everything, how long do you think that will last for?
When it comes to the arena, construction prices will skyrocket along with the price of oil, as the more the U.S. devalues their dollar, the more USD OPEC will ask for oil. (noticed anything expensive lately?) They are in a competition with China and India, China which by the way made the first ever deal for oil with Russia that is not in USD recently.
Daryl Katz did not become a businessman overnight. To own 1800 drug stores proves he obviously has a good grasp on the economy. How much do you want to bet that if someone like me sees this coming, not to mention many others then he probably does too. So why is it he would rather put his big money into a public relations campaign (public relations is propaganda) which I'm sure isn't cheap, instead of just putting it into the arena he wants to help "give" Edmonton?
This is not the great depression, economic growth in the future under today's terms of what an economy means isn't going to work no matter how many fiat dollars they print. Namely GDP which is just a fancy way of saying it is based on debt. This is because energy is now expensive, and will remain expensive as long as we require yearly increases in energy consumption to fuel GDP growth. More cars, more factories, Quantity not Quality.
Now. I want to get into this first class city crap. You want to know why Edmonton is not a "first class" city? I'll show you why:
From top left to bottom right:
We aren't a world class city, and a downtown arena won't change that. Katz Group is playing on your wants for such a dream town, they are playing on your fears of loosing the Oilers. Edmonton has a long way to come in a lot of areas before an arena is going to make or break this city. Its a wasted investment. As I advocated in my previous article, let's spend millions of dollars in thousands of places. We could start by putting something useful in the prime real estate that is the gravel parking lot.
That all I got to say on this subject, thanks for reading. Please read my first article on the arena if you haven't already or continue on about Canada's economy in general.
Ok, wtf. I write 5 articles and my 2nd and probably worst one gets the most hits? no comments? what gives?
Seriously I wrote that while having an overdose of anger, and its not very well done. So let me try this again. I *really* want to make the case here. I am not just some arena hating guy but that I strongly believe we are being convinced of something that is not economically feasible and is at the moment a ridiculous use of our resources. The previous article was really just a blend of half-assed points that really need some background to really make any sense.
You'll notice much of what I am writing on this blog is about energy and economics, particularly oil. Indeed my argument against the Katz Arena is centered around oil, or more specifically what has come to be know as the representation of oil world-wide, the U.S. dollar.
To understand why the state of their dollar matters to us Canadians and particularly to Albertans is that that is what they give us, for what we give them. We give them oil, they give us digital paper and say "this is worth something". Think about it, therefore what are Canadian dollars? Denominations of the American dollar. This is why staying near or below parity is very important for our government, preferably for the Americans they would want below parity.
Still with me? I promise this relates to the Arena, we'll be getting to that soon. Alright, so we've covered oil and the fact that oil is represented by the American dollar. Now, why does oil give the American dollar value? Well because up until recently it was the sole currency oil could be traded in, it is energy. How do we use it? In everything! In every stage of production! Oil is the engine for modern day consumption, it's not just any commodity it is the base of everything we have today.The American dollar is based of the future capacity to pay debts. If countries didn't accept American dollars, then they wouldn't have any value. They are not intrinsically valuable. It is a promise to pay. (Previously redeemable in gold). So what does Alberta get for it's oil? USD.
So how do we get materials to build say.. an Arena? Well we *pay* for the energy; both human and mechanical that is used in the process of getting them. This is where a term called "peak oil" becomes relevant, and which I am not going into here. There are many resources on the internet about peak oil, I suggest checking it out for yourself. I will say this though, Peak Oil is not Oil depletion. Anyone who implies this doesn't know what they are talking about.
Ok, almost to the arena now. You should see now why the USD collapsing is going to play a big role in the coming years. Think about all of these USD Quantative Easing, they are simply pressing buttons on a computer, making "cash", and then giving this "cash" to middle eastern countries for oil. So the U.S. presses a button, prints 1 trillion, and in return they get oil and also the work required to get that oil which likewise costs oil to provide the industry enough energy to get more oil. The same thing goes with derivative energy by the way, so don't think that there is an easy fix to this issue. Soon the CDN government will need to choose whether they go down over the cliff edge devaluation of the USD to maintain the huge trade relations or to revalue the CDN currency effectively cutting off the U.S. trade capability as it would be too expensive for them which likewise would affect our economy substantially as we saw with the brief interruption they had to their economy in 2008 which caused many Canadian auto shops to close, hundreds of thousands lost jobs.
So in either case we can expect a huge economic impact, there is no recovery, the recovery is a bubble, the final bubble you could say (pt2). A bubble of the USD itself, the international currency. There has been no recovery because you can't eat digital paper, or drive with it, it doesn't make buildings or develop new technology. With the manufacturing base in the U.S. gone, they are literally giving the world nothing in turn for everything, how long do you think that will last for?
When it comes to the arena, construction prices will skyrocket along with the price of oil, as the more the U.S. devalues their dollar, the more USD OPEC will ask for oil. (noticed anything expensive lately?) They are in a competition with China and India, China which by the way made the first ever deal for oil with Russia that is not in USD recently.
Daryl Katz did not become a businessman overnight. To own 1800 drug stores proves he obviously has a good grasp on the economy. How much do you want to bet that if someone like me sees this coming, not to mention many others then he probably does too. So why is it he would rather put his big money into a public relations campaign (public relations is propaganda) which I'm sure isn't cheap, instead of just putting it into the arena he wants to help "give" Edmonton?
This is not the great depression, economic growth in the future under today's terms of what an economy means isn't going to work no matter how many fiat dollars they print. Namely GDP which is just a fancy way of saying it is based on debt. This is because energy is now expensive, and will remain expensive as long as we require yearly increases in energy consumption to fuel GDP growth. More cars, more factories, Quantity not Quality.
Now. I want to get into this first class city crap. You want to know why Edmonton is not a "first class" city? I'll show you why:
From top left to bottom right:
- Sports Bar, Home away from home.
- The Strat, Classy.
- More classy places
- Used Cars
- Gravel parking lot
We aren't a world class city, and a downtown arena won't change that. Katz Group is playing on your wants for such a dream town, they are playing on your fears of loosing the Oilers. Edmonton has a long way to come in a lot of areas before an arena is going to make or break this city. Its a wasted investment. As I advocated in my previous article, let's spend millions of dollars in thousands of places. We could start by putting something useful in the prime real estate that is the gravel parking lot.
That all I got to say on this subject, thanks for reading. Please read my first article on the arena if you haven't already or continue on about Canada's economy in general.
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
Understanding the real 'why' behind Alberta's transmission lines
 |
| climatechangecentral.com |
To set the stage for my argument I would like to point to this article from StatsCan / 2005. I've chosen 2005 as that is when we were in the high growth stage of our last oil boom.
Alberta is Canada’s biggest per capita consumer of energy. In 2003, Alberta’s per capita consumption was two-and-a-half times higher than the national average. Between 1990 and 2003, per capita energy consumption increased by 11%. That surge was not entirely due to a sizeable increase in population. A big part of the increase in total energy consumption resulted from industrial activity in the province.The most notable portion of this paragraph is that we are the biggest per capita consumer, and that most of this energy demand is from industry. This video from Alberta's gov't gives a run down of their plans for the future, released at roughly the same point in time as the StatsCan article:
So at the time of this video, Alberta was producing 1.5 million barrels / day, which they hope to increase to 5 million barrels / day by 2030. So in 2005 Alberta's industry was about 28% of the total industry Alberta wants by 2030 which also means industrial power demand is 28% of the total power demand Alberta can anticipate from industry in 2030.
The problem with this is that the world uses near 90million barrels / day today, so the oil sands are only providing 1.5 million barrels of that, regardless if we have even 500 billion years worth of oil we still are only providing a drop in the bucket in actual oil produced. That oil is all still in the ground and useless to us at the moment.
Now most Albertan's know that primarily the U.S. receives our oil, but few realize that many other huge oil consuming economies like China also have big investments in the oil sands, and for good reason: they really really need that oil. Not only do they really need it, but they really need it cheap. Now think back to that statscan article I linked above and the fact most power demand increases in Alberta is directly from industry and in Alberta that industry is mostly oil sands. Some warning bells about our economic structure should be going off right about now, that our energy production has huge power consumption demand.
Most of our power production also seems to be being built up north such as this one and this one. Why would they be being built up north, and not near Calgary where Alberta's population needs power the most? Well reading the article should give you a hint:
Yup, they chose it! Now what reason would a power generation company have to choose a location that is nowhere near the population of the province? Well my bet would be money, stakeholder money to be specific.Energy Alberta Corporation has chosen Peace River, Alta., as the site for its proposed $6.2 billion nuclear power plant.
So, how is this relating to the power lines you might be asking? Well consider that the U.S. and the Chinese are the primary investors in our oil infrastructure. Consider that there are riots in many of the key oil producing nations which it can be assumed that Government's have been aware of and preparing for. Consider that our oil is expensive to produce and that the U.S. and China rely on cheap energy to fuel their massive economies.
So, using simple logic what is the reason the government is pushing power lines on Albertans that Albertans pay for 100%? Is it to sell power to the U.S.? Probably a little. Is it to grease the pockets of power companies and politicians? Yup. But the deep down reason? The power consumers don't want to pay for the full generation and transmission costs of the future. It's preferable to the eyes of big business that we pay for it. Naturally it is cheaper to consume power if the power is being generated close to you. Albertans will be paying the transmission costs that industry should be paying instead.
Do not support this scam, demand power plants are built near our populations. I refer to this as classic "privatize profits, socialize losses" policy making and as uptag has noted is not reflective of the population's power demand at all.
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Welcome to Hellberta
Arnold Lim, Edmonton Journal |
This province for the longest time has been no better than your typical dirty gambler. Remember back in 2009 Ed Stelmach presented his 5 step economic action plan alongside this budget? Now just a few days ago what do we see again in the news?
EDMONTON — While surging oil prices will deliver a financial windfall to the petroleum-powered provincial treasury, a series of major production hiccups over the fiscal year is expected to cost the Alberta government at least $340 million.How many times before Alberta tries something new? The definition of insanity is to repeat the same thing over and over expecting different results according to Albert Einstein, are those bumper stickers about not pissing away the next oil boom not a clue for anyone? Does this sort of behavior remind you the reader of any other sort of personality? Maybe the sort that sits in front of the slots dumping money in, waiting for their next big break and not noticing the amount of money going in is either equal to or greater than the amount coming out?
The Alberta government lies constantly, and I'm sick of it. So welcome everyone to Hellberta.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)