tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45062924449666334512024-03-14T07:02:34.996-06:00HellbertaFreedom to exploit, spirit to deceive.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-71839791628249231752012-04-18T10:48:00.001-06:002012-04-18T10:48:37.986-06:00The past year has been fun but...I'm retiring this Hellberta blog. I am refocusing completely on global trends which will be blogged on my new blog: <a href="http://canadiantrends.blogspot.ca/" target="_blank">Canadian Trends</a>. Hope to see you there.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-51651787414585345952012-03-23T15:28:00.002-06:002012-03-23T15:28:56.078-06:00So you know the problems but are looking for solutions?One of the criticisms I get most often are that I'm good at pointing out or even predicting the problems of the day but so-called solutions are few and far between. It's a fair criticism in the world of modern journalism. Most articles start off explaining a problem, provide a counter-point, then conclude with a solution of some sort.<br />
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It's standard within our society to look to others for solutions to our problems. As someone who commented on my blog yesterday said:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">I believe that Canada has huge potential and we need good leadership to lead us towards success.</span><br />
</blockquote>
I completely agree that Canada has huge potential. I don't agree however that we <u>need</u> good leadership to realize it. In fact the way I see the situation is completely opposite in that I do not believe we will get good leadership until we are ready to realize our full potential. Afterall what exactly is 'Canada' if not the sum of the capabilities and morals of it's people? As the old saying goes, when the student is ready the teacher appears.<br />
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There's a few reasons why I chose not to provide these black & white quick-fix solutions you often find in other commentary. The first and most important is a personal reason for me: who am I to tell you what to do about a particular problem? I don't know your circumstance or your access to resources - in fact I don't know if my readers view the problems I describe as problems at all (obviously this commentor agreed with me, but I'm positive many don't).<br />
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The first & foremost thing I believe in is critical thinking. The ability for people to think for themselves. I believe strongly that a person who is motivated to implement change or address a situation doesn't need the go ahead or ideas from me. Every person in this world is able to take a problem, look at their local surroundings, and make personal change to address it or at the very least insulate themselves from it. You don't need a new election, a new leader, or a new government to do that. In other words, it is all about personal responsibility.<br />
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I do not describe these problems expecting a govermental white knight to show up and fix them. I write about these problems so that you (the reader) may become aware of some of the more complex issues we are facing that are not normally spelled out for you in your standard media in hopes that once aware you will be able to take action to protect yourself and your family and friends.<br />
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The final reason I don't provide the simple solutions is that we're simply not ready to discuss solutions yet. We're not even discussing the problems. If there is ever to be some sort of grand country-wide (or world-wide) solution that's credible, it can only come about if everyone is on the same page about the facts and the problems and only after we drop the hyper-partisan bickering we find within our political system.<br />
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It's all about personal responsibility, that's the solution.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-1825726720660785592012-03-22T19:16:00.000-06:002012-03-22T19:24:44.721-06:00The speculation about speculators speculating about oil priceIt's becoming a recurring theme to blame the high oil price on "speculators". This of course implies some sort of clear distinction between someone legitimately purchasing oil contracts or someone purchasing or selling them purely for profit. There is of course a difference. You might call the first one a country or a company. You might call the second a trader.<br />
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The solutions <a href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/03/21/saudi-arabia-oil/">being presented</a> suggest that all we have to do is convince Wall Street to stop trading oil! Here's a choice exert:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">Saudi Arabia promises to fill in the supply gap if the Iranian crisis escalates, but there's only one place that can help stave off high oil prices: Wall Street.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">Now, blaming speculators for high prices is nothing new. What is new is that one of the largest speculators in the oil markets, none other than Goldman Sachs (GS), admitting that heavy speculation does have an impact on oil prices. How much? Well, Goldman's oil analyst wrote in a note last month that every million barrel equivalent of oil futures that was net long the market adds 10 cents to the price of oil. The market is currently net long US benchmark crude, or WTI, by 258,406 contracts which is equivalent to 258 million barrels of oil. At 10 cents per every million barrels, that would mean speculation is currently adding $25.80 to every barrel of oil -- without the excess speculation, oil would trade at around $81.52. </span></blockquote>
Note the language here, without the "excess speculation". Excess. So who decides whose contracts are "excess"? ALL of the contracts are speculation but only some are "excess" speculation. Well it's simple some are probably saying, the "excess" would be those not in the market to take delivery. It sounds simple, but effectively what you are saying is that you would be entering into a non-transferrable binding contract. A country that made a loosing bet on oil for instance would not be able to trade their contracts and would have no option but to take delivery, take the losses and then put the product back on the market. Not very effective. So this is to say that if we are to have an oil market at all, it will be a speculative market.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">Despite the verbal assaults, there has been little impact on global oil supply as a result of the tougher sanctions on Iran. OPEC estimates Iran produced 3.424 million barrels of oil a day in February, which is off around 5.4% from the 2011 average. Increased crude production from the rest of OPEC, namely Libya and Saudi Arabia, more than made up for this small decline in output. Meanwhile, the U.S. market continues to be well supplied. There is currently enough oil in commercial oil storage tanks to cover 57.5 days of demand, which is 4 days more than a year ago and 6.6 days more than the five-year average.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">But it is the potential for a massive supply disruption that is adding a special premium to oil prices, even though such a possibility is remote. Saudi Arabia's oil minister told reporters last week that the Kingdom stands ready to "make good any shortfalls – perceived or real – in crude oil supply." This week, the Kingdom's cabinet released an official statement saying that it "alone" would supply enough oil to the markets to return prices back to what it deems to be a "fair" level for consumers. U.S. benchmark crude futures shed about $2 after the news, to end Tuesday at $106.07.</span></blockquote>
If only the <strong>futures</strong> market cared about the present. What they are telling you here is that even though there is plenty of supply <strong>now</strong> (enough to last 57.5 days) the "speculation" is being driven by fears about the <strong>future</strong>. People are paying a premium <strong>now</strong> because they are anticipating supply issues in the <strong>future</strong>. Traders are "bull" <strong>now</strong> because they anticipate supply disruptions in the <strong>future</strong>. Wall Street isn't causing the anticipation, possible supply disruptions are.<br />
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We're all speculators. Ever filled cans of gasoline because you knew or expected the price to go up? congratulations, you're a speculator. The price could possibly go down, but you made a bet it wouldn't. That it would go up and paid a premium price in the now to save money in the future.<br />
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Now I'm not saying the market isn't corrupt. <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.ca/2011/03/automatic-trading-how-human-race-has.html">It is</a>. But if we want to do something about that, oil speculation is hardly the place to start. The reality is, if it wasn't Wall Street, it would be someone else. Like the Chinese for instance, or Japan whose imports have tripled since Fukushima. There is no shortage of demand, and speculators have nothing to do with that.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-62613826687232049332012-03-21T19:58:00.001-06:002012-03-21T20:02:05.802-06:00Where's the vision? Where's the dream?Where's the vision? Where's the dream? No seriously, where is it? In an unusual twist today I've decided to write 2 (yes 2!) blog posts. This post just occured to me now as I read the op-ed's rolling in about Harper's latest attack ad. They all seem to have a few points in common: that negative ads simply turn off people from wanting to be involved in politics and that we need to do something to stop them. Few however seem to mention what else these politicians would talk about.<br />
<br />
As a member of the "politically disengaged yet aware" demographic I would like to tell you columnists that for me, negative attack ads are not the reason I am not inspired by our political system. Hell I don't even have TV. I didn't know he put out attack ads until some papers started writing stories about it. Do you know why? Because being I am a part of the "politically disengaged yet aware" demographic I seriously don't give a flying fuck what Harper is wasting my hard earned money on. He's wasting it, I don't need a TV to know that and neither does anyone else in my demographic. Unlike the baby boomer generation who at least saw in their lifetimes some sort of political honesty, my generation has mostly seen 10 years of bullshit war & the lies to cover it. Then my generation got to see the world's banks commit what may be the largest bank robbery in human history and not only get away with it but in fact gain more power with the full clearance & support of our corrupt political class. We've matured in a decade overflowing with lies & deceit and people seriously wonder why we might be disengaged?<br />
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We never had the blind faith in the system to begin with. This is why many more from my generation can see how easy it is to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZNvSX3A7pc">prove 9/11 was an inside job</a> while many baby boomer's are so struck with disbelief that they simply ignore the evidence. "Bush was bad, but not that bad". "There's no way they would kill their own people" and etc etc. Yet in clear contrast NATO countries have been on a 10 year killing spree all because of 3000 people killed 10 years ago. For 10 years we've watched bullshit politicians make bullshit foreign policy based on bullshit lies and funded by our <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chris-martenson-lecture-why-next-20-years-will-be-marked-collapse-exponential-function">bullshit money</a> and people seriously wonder why we might be disengaged?<br />
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Or how about the light at the end of the tunnel? "There will be jobs", or "we'll balance the books". WOW, big fucking dreams you have there Mr. Politician, I mean it's almost just as good as going to the moon. It is really inspiring for my demographic for instance to hear all about how the baby boomer's have to get their pensions. My demographic? Well we might get one. We might be a little older, or you know.. dead. Then of course there is the massive debt the baby boomer's have decided to leave for us to pay off with the money that should be going towards the pensions we'll have to supply ourselves and people seriously wonder why we might be disengaged?<br />
<br />
Maybe attack ads are symbolic of a larger problem in the political system? That it's so full of corruption, dirty tricks, and bullshit that attacking each other over it is really all thats left to say.<br />
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When politicians start talking about how to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL111862016CF39978">address our criminal monetary system</a>, <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20100813033954/http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/">admit peak oil</a>, take seriously the crimes of Bush and Cheney (as in arrest and prosecute them if they come to Canada), and I think most importantly: stop acting as though all of our resources are your resources and that they have to all be sold now they just might find out that Generation Fucked wants to be engaged. Maybe stop hiking tuition fees, maybe just act as though you give a fuck about what happens in the future beyond your retirement and the economic now.<br />
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My demographic has a dream and a vision of what this world could be, and I think many of us have a good idea what needs to be done to set things straight. However most of us know that unless we can partake in a "fundraising dinner" we'll never be heard and even if we were; we'd be lobbying the very people looking to sell our future labour now at rock bottom prices. Do you think if you ask the thief nicely he'll give you back that TV?<br />
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There is a multitude of reasons why my demographic is disengaged. Attack ads are a drop in the bucket.<br />
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End Rant.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-27331872410600141302012-03-21T12:14:00.002-06:002012-03-21T12:50:29.329-06:00Canada and the fine line between reality and liesGone are the days of fairytale stories about Canada's incredibly stable and safe banking system. These stories are now slowly being replaced by a stark reality: Canadians are carrying too much debt.<br />
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It is now 2012, and the much promised economic security and stability isn't here. Sure, many supporters of our politicians will say "well it's not our fault, the global economy is at fault" and I certainly won't argue that point, it is definitely at fault. What few seem to realize though is we are a part of that economy as well. It's not that I honestly expected the global economy to be out of the woods but what upsets me is just 1 year ago: our politicians and supposed economic experts did expect that. What good is an "expert" if they can't tell which way the wind is blowing?<br />
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Even now, our politicians continue to provide promises of "balanced books" by 2014, 2015, and beyond. Pick a year and somewhere there is some government estimating that's the year their books will be balanced. But based on what? This is utter and complete double-think. The world economy cannot both be recovering and holding back economic recovery at the same time. Someone's lying, and I don't think it is reality.<br />
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Canada's tipping point will be here within the next few months. Already austerity is the talk of the town in Ontario. Quebec is now pulling an Alberta; betting that royalties from mining will cover anticipated deficits. People should be quite upset when royalties are used to balance budgets. Why? Because that's future revenue being used to cover current revenue shortfalls or overspending. It's shortsighted and when the future they are stealing wealth from arrives, what then?<br />
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Maybe that future is here right now. A recent indicator to our true economic health passed by recently showing just how thin the line we're walking really is. Back in February <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/02/08/mortgage-rate-hike.html">TD & RBC ended a cheap mortgage financing scheme early</a> a few days after a <a href="http://www.investmentexecutive.com/-/fsb-issues-warning-on-canadian-household-debt">series of warnings</a> about Canada's debt load sustainability. But it didn't last long as <a href="http://www.therecord.com/news/business/article/683948--mortgage-war-escalates-amid-concerns-about-household-debt">the banks recently just launched the same deal again</a>! What's going on here? Can you think of a good reason why banks would cancel cheap financing for mortgages early only to relaunch the same deal a month later? The only answer I can think of is that Canadian's are out of wiggle room.<br />
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If we're to keep up the illusion that our economy is actually still growing, secure, and stable Canadians must be able to afford houses. Not being able to afford a home is a sure sign that your purchasing power has been destroyed; that your real wealth has fallen. Thus there is a need for the Bank of Canada to maintain low interest rates and for banks to offer cheap loans. As long as housing sales & housing starts look healthy most people believe the economy is healthy. Indeed "housing starts" blanket the headlines every time new reports come out. However, if the Canadian household debt continues to grow then it is safe to reason that housing starts & housing sales are only bouyant due to the financing options available and only at the record low interest rates that come with them, but should these rates raise it's likely many people will not afford their monthly payments: triggering defaults. Sound familiar?Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-67724842756744914392012-03-01T23:53:00.000-07:002012-03-02T00:31:10.060-07:00An open response to "A False Majority by Fraudulent Means?"You can find the Green party's press release <a href="http://www.greenparty.ca/media-release/2012-03-01/false-majority-fraudulent-means">here</a>.<br />
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Canada needs electoral reform - no doubt about it. No matter what happens with this robocall scam one thing is evidently very clear: our system can be easily manipulated, and we have little or none of the tools we need as citizens to investigate sources of manipulation. It's quite likely we'll discover we have even less recourse 9 months (and counting) after the fact.<br />
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I'm not going to get into any details or speculation on the robocalls in this post; from my perspective this late in the game it doesn't matter who perpetrated the fraud. What worries me even more than if this election was stolen is: now that we have discovered a problem (vulnerability) in our electoral system we must take great care not to implement solutions that may put us in worse positions in the future. In the Green's press release they advocate a "proportional" voting system and I believe we should be very cautious going down such a path.<br />
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Let me ask you a simple question and please be honest with yourself. Who did you vote for in the last election? Think of your answer before continuing.<br />
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I expect four "types" of answers to this question:<br />
<ol>
<li>A name of a political party.</li>
<li>The name of a political party's leader.</li>
<li>The name of an MP.</li>
<li>No one/threw my ballot/whatever.</li>
</ol>
Now, think about why you chose the one you did. For instance: if your answer was "The Conservatives", is it because you identify as a "conservative"? If your answer was a specific leader, was it what you saw them say in the debates? If it's the name of an MP, do you identify with a political party or even a specific party platform or ideology at all?<br />
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A proportional system is proportional for the parties running. Its proportional for the promotion of political ideology, but is it proportional for me? Maybe the MP I chose to vote for got my vote because I respected his or her own personal ethic? Maybe I voted for an MP that I had faith in would advocate for their constituents even if what a majority of their constituents want in some cases may be against their ideology. Maybe I voted for an MP that would represent *me*, as a person -- not a brand name -- instead of dictating to me? If I did would a "proportional" system represent me at all? I don't think so.<br />
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Our electoral races are strange. Take any typical party press conference: the leader stands behind a podium and somewhere within camera view is (lately) usually a sign that says something like: "[Party Name] party! Vote for [Leader Name]". However when it comes to election time most Canadians will not find [Leader Name] on the ballot. To vote for the "leader" you must vote for the party. Not the MP.<br />
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Lets say, theoretically that the liberals won last election, but say for the sake of argument <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ignatieff-will-not-resign-despite-losing-in-own-riding/article2007167/">Michael Ignatieff still lost his seat</a>. You would have a situation where the party wins, the leader has no seat, and probably a majority of voters who voted liberal because they like the leader are all like 'WTF?'. Sure the leader will probably trade with another MP to have a seat, but the point remains: What are you really voting for?<br />
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If you're voting for ideology or the party line, proportional representation will do wonders. However if you're like me and view MPs as having a responsibility to their constituents regardless of the party line proportional representation isn't for you.<br />
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Just think about the joke that is question period. Partisan bickering, finger pointing, and fantasy facts on all sides. It's a big real time flame war - and how often do you ever EVER get a straight answer? That is what proportional representation will bring: all flame war, all the time.<br />
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We need to focus on the MP, the individual. All the parties have some good MPs - people I think still have honor. I say forget your political allegiance.. the party brand name because in a <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/09/in-war-of-ideology-everyone-looses.html">war of ideology, everyone loses</a>.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-59843057323717204672012-02-14T12:13:00.000-07:002012-02-14T13:56:45.319-07:00February mid-month round-up: Greece burns, Alberta gambles & Canada trades soul for Pandas<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5138vIJ0Y1qz51eno1_500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5138vIJ0Y1qz51eno1_500.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Well it would appear that China has finally found a spot to park it's unwanted USD. That would be here in good old Canada and all it cost them was leasing us two Pandas. What a deal! Back in 2011 I wrote a quick post about why <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/05/canadas-economy-good-bad-and-bullshit.html">Canada's economy is good, bad and bullshit</a>. A key portion of this post was that China was dumping the USD - but one year later with multiple countries such as Russia, India, and Iran writing off the USD as well one has to wonder, who exactly is taking it? Well it would appear the answer is Canada.<br />
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Now not only are we trading resources to the U.S. for a devaluing USD, no no.. now we will accept them from China as well. Many people are probably looking at our new trade relations with China and say to themselves: "well thats good isn't it? We're diversifying from dependence on the U.S. economy" - but this isn't really the case. Whether we are receiving USD from China, or USD from the U.S. it is still USD which is directly tied to the health of the U.S. and global economy. So are we breaking our dependence on the U.S.? When it comes to the actual physical trade: yes. When it comes to the value we receive for what we trade: no.<br />
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Are you a big coffee drinker? Have you noticed anything happening to the price of coffee? How about other imported foods? If you are conscious about your grocery bill you will probably have noticed it's gone up quite a bit. This is a direct result of piggybacking the CAD off the USD. Many analysts now claim the CAD is directly tied to resources now. They indicate that when resources go up, the CAD goes up, and when resources go down, the CAD goes down. However, the target for comparison always happens to be the USD. You may notice that if the CAD does exceed the USD, it's not by very much and not for very long. This is because while resource prices influence our dollar, a 1:1 ratio with the USD at most (approximately) is essential not just for continuing trade with the U.S. but also to continue trade with any country who trades using USD. The number of countries is large, albeit dwindling. It is really a match made in heaven: MAny countries around the world are looking for a place to dump their USD and Canada's valuable resources are "open for business". As most of our politicians are heavily involved in the U.S. stock market, they also have a vested interest in keeping the USD alive, even if the cost of food and gas for you and your family becomes unaffordable. This is the new measure for economic health, this is why the Euro was rising even as Greece was burning. On paper accepting austerity is great, but in reality it is <a href="http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/greek-economy-stuck-in-deep-recession-3?ocid=tweet">destroying what's left of their physical economy</a>. You know; the economy that feeds people, not HFT.<br />
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On top of Canada's "everything must go" fire sale policy it appears that we also are <a href="http://www.thestar.com/business/markets/article/1130759--carney-flaherty-say-proposed-u-s-bank-crackdown-could-sideswipe-canada">in a bit of a huff about proposed changes to the U.S. banking system</a>. The take away paragraph from this article is:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">The source of concern is a new U.S. regulation meant to deter deposit-taking institutions that receive backstopping from Washington from engaging in speculative trading for their own—not their clients’—profit, a practice known as proprietary trading. Risky trades by global banking giants were central to the banking crisis that compelled former U.S. president George W. Bush to launch a $700-billion bailout of Wall Street in 2008.</span></blockquote>
Translation: our banks engage in the same practices as in the U.S.<br />
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It goes on further:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">“I think the impact could be very, very negative,” said Canadian Bankers Association President Terry Campbell. “If you interfere with the ability of governments and corporations to fund themselves, if you interfere with liquidity in the marketplace, which is necessary for funding, then you could have a very severe impact on our economy.”</span></blockquote>
Translation: Governments and Corporations fund themselves using risky and sometimes fraudulent banking practices and if we try to change that now then our "financial stability" is put at risk. Canada's complaints about these changes should confirm for all Canadians that our banks ARE NOT anymore stable than the U.S. or European banks. When you combine this fact with a world that uses the USD and a U.S. whose financial system is mostly dependant on foreign countries providing goods for that USD it should be no surprise <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/40826339/Non_US_Banks_Gained_from_Fed_Crisis_Fund">the Fed's crisis fund bailed out non-US banks including Canada's TD</a>.<br />
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<div class="fancybox-bg" id="fancybox-bg-e">
The crisis in Greece is a preview of what's to come for all countries that engage in these practices as their ponzi economies rely on ever-increasing returns while peak oil ensures returns will be ever diminishing. It is the shortfall between leveraged value and real wealth which has Canada concerned as without riskier and riskier ways to leverage funds: profits dry up. For proof of this look no further than Alberta's latest budget which depends on a predicted 40% increase in oil revenue to meet expenses and bring Alberta out of a deficit (yet again).</div>
<br />
<div class="fancybox-bg">
Alberta's entire budget is based on a "bet" and betting is a feature of gambling. So Alberta's budget isn't really a "budget" at all now is it? When I budget for the month, I do not assume that sometime during that month I'm going to win the lottery and I certainly do not factor my theoretical lottery winnings into my budget. After you win the lottery and have the money in your hand then it is safe to include that in your budget. Now of course the odds of predicting oil price are a lot better than winning the lottery, but the cost of failure is the same.</div>
<br />
<div class="fancybox-bg">
Back in 2008, no energy analysts and no economic experts predicted a drop in oil price from $147/barrel to $38/barrel. No experts predicted that there would be a scooter revolution due to the price of gas at the time. Alberta has spent the last decade convincing Albertan's the oilsands were making them rich and yet wheres the money? The sustainability fund has been drained, infrastructure is crumbling or 20 years behind, the heritage fund in leu of their olympic train, $25m rebranding effort, and $2B for carbon capture is hardly sufficient to account for all of the resources given away in Albertan's names. With the latest budget and Alberta's continued campaign to pretend it has more money than it does - I expect a repeat of the 2008 situation in Alberta within the next 2 years.</div>
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<div class="fancybox-bg">
Remember, at $147/barrel - and with cheap credit everywhere - debt could not be sustained. This time around all of that cheap credit has been used up and I believe the ceiling on oil demand is a lot lower. There is no more debt people (Americans) can get into to subsidize their ever-increasing cost of living. If oil hits Albertas targets and without some external crisis (Iran), it's highly unlikely it will be sustained any longer than the time it takes for those price changes to show up in the cost of consumer goods.<br />
<br /></div>
Further Reading: <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/02/06/the-federal-reserves-explicit-goal-devalue-the-dollar-33/">The Federal Reserve's Explicit Goal: Devalue The Dollar 33%: Forbes<span class="fancy-ico" id="fancybox-right-ico"></span></a>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-65106021888434809242012-01-30T13:52:00.002-07:002012-01-30T14:03:18.226-07:00Why the dinosaur propaganda system can't use social media effectivelyLately I have been swinging my sights on to Ethical Oil's latest mouthpiece <a href="http://www.twitter.com/KVMarshall">Kathryn Marshall</a>. Of course I am not a radical environmentalist; what angers me about Ethical Oil is how insulting their campaign is. Their campaign is propaganda designed to fool Canadians, not other countries.<br />
<br />
The Ethical Oil campaign is the face of fascism. Their campaign is nationalist in nature (Canadian interests against foreign interests). Their campaign is a collaboration of government and industry. It is text-book fascism, and fascism never falls on the side of truth.<br />
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Luckily for us that live in the era of social media; fascist propaganda is a lot harder to get away with. Take for example <a href="http://www.prdaily.com/Main/Articles/10645.aspx">Marshall's viral embarrasment</a> from a few weeks ago. All 3 organizations featured boasted this interview on their social media feeds; each expecting to have positive feedback as a result. Of course since Marshall's performance was so poor the Ethical Oil organization didn't get the feedback they were probably desiring, and instead received a big 'ROFL' from the Twitter universe. This brings us to today's topic, which is why the old dinosaur propaganda outlets just can't master the art of social media; specifically Twitter.<br />
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The first thing to notice about social media is that your audience is very aware if you are "real". Almost every politician has a Twitter account, but not all of them actually man it. Many (such as <a href="http://www.twitter.com/PMHarper">http://www.twitter.com/PMHarper</a>) simply treat it as another arm of their PR spin, putting out "tweets" like they put out news releases. It's impersonal and a failed use of social media for PR. It's rare that you will get a reply if you message these sorts of "manned" accounts and it's so obvious that it's a PR team answering your message even if they do reply that these accounts should really be named @[Politician]sCampaign.<br />
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Another form of "news release style" social media practices are those used by the @Ethical_Oil account and @KVMarshall. They do take an interactive approach, but they do so in the same form of a relationship that say a blogger and their readers/commentors have. Bloggers often moderate (censor) comments coming from their readers and as a result most blogs usually end up with a "cherry-picked" feeling; where all of the comments strangely seem to be of the same view as the blog they are published on (For the record I do not modify, moderate, or delete comments posted on this blog). Of course, what Ethical_Oil and Kathryn Marshall seem to not realize is: that Twitter isn't a blog and you can't cherry pick your public presence on it (even though it might appear that you can).<br />
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For the next few days after her embarrassing interview, Kathryn Marshall went on a Twitter banning spree. Anyone who disagreed with her was banned and blocked from following her on Twitter and thus she no longer can see these user's mentions either. She justified this mass blocking beating some sort of sexist drum and retweeting the few who did make sexist comments to make it appear as though everyone she was blocking was being sexist. Of course most in fact were questioning her absurd statements about Enbridge funding being a "conspiracy theory". What Kathryn Marshall doesn't seem to understand though, is that a Twitter search still returns all "mention" tweets even by user's she herself has blocked. Since she's blocked all those user's who oppose her (Enbridge's) position she has inadvertently created a virtual "social reality" in which everyone she sees agrees with her which reinforces her belief that most of Canada must be on her side.<br />
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The result of this is quite amusing, looking at her feed you will see statements such as "I'm so glad I have so many fans, etc" - and looking at her twitter in which she retweets anything even remotely positive about her or Ethical Oil it would indeed appear that is the case, however.. the picture changes starkly if you search her twitter handle. Under the tweets mentioning her handle (or @Ethical_Oil), you will find the majority of them are quite negative. Most are calling out Ethical Oil for being funded by Enbridge. Many are laughing at Marshall herself for seemingly being so oblivious about how stupid she has made Ethical Oil look - and are there any replies or rebuttals to any of these statements? No. Why not? Well it's hard to reply and make your point about your PR spin if you block everyone who disagrees, this might work on a blog but when it comes to social media - sorry - all of those "blocked" comments are all still available for everyone except the blocker. Not exactly smart when the point of launching such a campaign is to convince those who would disagree with you that you are correct. By blocking everyone who disagrees they are simply revealing how disingenuous they are. What's really sad is I think that this point is actually beyond Ethical_Oil and Kathryn Marshall, either that or this campaign is designed "for the ethical oil choir". I mean honestly, the only people they are "convincing" is those who already agreed with the concept of "ethical oil" or those who are so brainwashed they think giving our oil to China isn't "foreign special interests" - but these people all thought this way before Ezra's pathetic blog.<br />
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So this is why the dinosaur propaganda outlets will never make good use of the social media platform (however hard they may try). The reason is that social media (unlike traditional media) is an interactive two-way street. Propaganda depends on a one-way, information-out only - where critical thinking is deflected with straw-man arguments about nothing at all. Such as "is our oil ethical?". This is why the ethical oil argument can't stand up in any interactive forum, it's propaganda at it's purest - a 100% straw-man argument - that when analyzed or questioned even a little: falls apart like a house of cards.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-49349141991311969502012-01-04T18:49:00.003-07:002012-01-04T19:35:28.625-07:00The Great Oil War [Chapter 2] : IranIn <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/03/great-oil-war-chapter-1-lybia.html">chapter 1</a> of what now may be considered the beginnings of a World-War III we discussed what was then the active military action against Libya. We covered economic hitmen and the typical approach taken by western nations to overthrow or at least get nations to play along with their game.<br />
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Of course there are many other skirmishes going on, such as Syria but for me it is Iran which gets a "chapter 2" due to the clear escalation it represents. Back in 2005 Michael Ruppert described exactly the scene we are seeing play out with Iran today:<br />
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I know it is 2 hours long but please do take the time to watch as it is extremely important material. As you can see there are no mentions of nuclear weapons in this video and clearly what is happening now has been building for a long time far longer than this "sudden" nuclear media spotlight threat from Iran. Iran of course is simply going to be another theatre war as was described in "Project for a New American Century"'s report titled "Rebuilding America's defenses". The nuclear threat is the same WMD bullshit we were fed with Iraq.<br />
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Understanding the concept of "theatre" here is very important. It is theatre for your consumption, like a hollywood movie. If you have been watching the republican debates, one you might find quite interesting is the debate specifically oriented around national security. First of all, to begin: why national security? Why not the economy? It seems to me that national security really only comes up when the mass media exadurates the threats coming from countries with resources, or drugs. Then notice that for some reason all of the questioning is about Iran. You'd think with multiple wars going on, North Korea's leader near death, and China quickly gobling up global energy resources that some of the topics might have also made the list of "national security"; but instead it's a full 2 hours of essentially descriptions of theoretical scenarios involving Iran and how the candidates would respond to them. And respond they did, my most memorable response was Newt Gingrich talking on public TV about how he would use covert operations. Let me ask you, if Iran was such an imminent threat to their national security then why would they publically be discussing tactics they've yet to deploy? Why antagonize a nation you are not yet at war with by talking as though you are? Why give them the heads up? You see it was all for you, dear reader. It was a big scary show put on to promote a war with Iran and to scare the viewers with all of the scary theoretical scenarios the media (government?) could dream up.<br />
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I'd like to show you an interesting contrast. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/kathryn-marshall/conflict-oil-iran_b_1174820.html">Here is some lovely theatre fluff</a> for your consumption put out by ethicaloil.org to promote the ethical oil brand at the expense of Iran, and on the back of 10 years of propaganda and lies. It doesn't hold back at all even mentioning 9/11. It's 100% advertisement.<br />
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<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-war-imminent-straits-hormuz-200-barrel-oil">Here is an objective article</a> put out by Zero Hedge about the dangers of Iran and oil price. See the difference? One provides facts and the other? Well the other tells you all about how great ethical oil is because you know.. war sucks. Sorry.. "conflict" sucks. The HuffPost article is so incredibly filled with shit I'm surprised Huffington even published it. Let's disect this sucker!!!!<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">Not everyone cares about the conflict footprint that comes with oil from Iran's loathsome regime. Plenty of countries are content to patronize a government that not only brutally tramples basic human rights, degrades women, and persecutes gays, but also uses the currency it collects from oil sales to </span><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/un-cites-credible-evidence-iran-is-building-nuclear-warheads/article2230081/" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">build nuclear weapons</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> so it can threaten and potentially attack its neighbors. </span></blockquote>
This is a real gem of a paragraph, let's look past the obvious and skip the demonization introduction. I'm not a fan of Iran but that sentence is clearly there to set your mood for this article. Tacked on to the end after the first three crimes get you all angry is this: "<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">uses the currency it collects from oil sales to </span><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/un-cites-credible-evidence-iran-is-building-nuclear-warheads/article2230081/" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">build nuclear weapons</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> so it can threaten and potentially attack its neighbors</span>". Obviously the author is hoping that the introduction has numbed your critical thinking here as this sentence is clear propaganda. The mention of using "oil money to build nuclear weapons" is interesting. First of all: I wasn't aware that ethicaloil.org had access to Iran's financials and second: that's a lot of oil money they've spent to not yet have a nuke, don't you think? It's an assumption on speculation presented as fact. Finally the author insults your intelligence by implying Iran has been threatening to attack it's neighbors with nuclear weapons when they re in reality denying these weapons exist at all. Moving on.<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">When France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, recently</span><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CC4QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abs-cbnnews.com%2Fglobal-filipino%2Fworld%2F12%2F28%2F11%2Firan-threatens-stop-gulf-oil-if-sanctions-widened&ei=T8_8TvzZIYfV0QHpgL3FAg&usg=AFQjCNEZWMQcx7X4k97oacsi5qn5OHsf9A" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> floated</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> the idea of slapping an embargo on Iranian oil to pressure the mullahs to stop their dangerous and illegal nuclear arms race, he won support from Britain, but the rest of the European Union wasn't hot on the idea. They're just fine </span><a href="http://www.ethicaloil.org/news/will-the-eu-finally-take-ethics-seriously/" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">punishing ethical Canadian oil,</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> but debated over punishing Iran's conflict oil.</span></blockquote>
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Again, let's ignore obvious points such as the fact that there is a large ocean between us and Europe and the infrastructure to heavily douse Europe in Canadian oil doesn't exist anyway. What I find really interesting here is the idea implanted by the author that oil consumption at the moment is some sort of choice by these countries. For those who read this blog I shouldn't have to remind you that we only pump just under 2million barrels of ethical oil a day and I think it is safe to say that with the U.S.'s oil demand, and China.. Europe isn't getting any. Europe is demonizing our oil because it makes economic sense. They don't rely on our oil and they must appease those pesky environmental activists somehow. So they campaign against a product that doesn't impact them to gain popular support, just as ethical oil does against Saudi oil for popular support here. China is a brutal regime too, but we have no problem <a href="http://www.canada.com/business/Athabasca+sell+sands+interest+PetroChina+680M/5939334/story.html">inviting them in</a> and allowing them to use foreign temporary workers for staff.<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">But supporting conflict oil doesn't just mean promoting terror, persecution, murder, and war -- though it certainly does mean all those things. It also means promoting instability and risk. That's what the Europeans, and other importers of Iranian oil, are discovering right now. That's because the Iranian autocrats </span><a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/27/iran-threatens-to-cut-off-oil-exports-if-sanctions-imposed-over-nuclear-activity/" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">have declared</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> that if the world continues to bring pressure to bear on them over their illegal nuclear program, they'll choke off world oil supplies by closing off the Strait of Hormuz.</span></blockquote>
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The author doesn't know what "supporting terror" is, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html">this is supporting terror</a> with a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/04/us-libya-qaeda-algeria-idUSTRE73335320110404">direct result</a>. Like I said, it is theatre for your consumption, dear reader.<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">In short, that could be disastrous to a world economy that's already perilously fragile. The Strait of Hormuz is the main channel through which Middle Eastern tankers transport oil for export from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq. In addition, about </span><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCYQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2Fid%2F45815697&ei=oM_8TpOrHajx0gGpu7y4Ag&usg=AFQjCNEnqNznJTSPk1lBtUXCsNuMdplD6Q" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">15.5 million barrels</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"> -- or a third of all ocean-transported oil and liquefied gas worldwide -- moves through the six kilometre-wide strait. Even for those countries, like the U.S. and Canada, who aren't clients of the Shariah oil state, the spike in oil prices that would be caused by such a major disruption of supply could be devastating.</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">This is what a world at the mercy of conflict oil looks like. It's a hostage situation. We either directly support the horrendous rule of the worst dictators on earth and, if we don't, they can cause the entire world great economic pain and, potentially, even spark warfare. As the<em> National Post</em> </span><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CCwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.nationalpost.com%2F2011%2F12%2F27%2Firan-threatens-to-cut-off-oil-exports-if-sanctions-imposed-over-nuclear-activity%2F&ei=3cz8TonWEcX40gHjw5nbAQ&usg=AFQjCNF3E9Unks1Dj7banuo10ULWW3og3w" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">reports</span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">, Iran's decision could very well "trigger military conflict with economies dependent on Gulf oil."</span></blockquote>
This paragraph is almost true, if you remove one word "conflict". It should read: "<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">This is what a world at the mercy of oil looks like<span style="color: black; font-size: small;">". Somehow the ethicaloil.org author has determined that Canada's ethical oil production will have no problem reaching the combined oil output of "conflict oil" countries. Considering that Saudi alone produces around 9million barrels / day I don't think I need to tell you why this assertion is a slap in the face to your intelligence.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">Most of the time the difference is psychological: It's about values and the fate of persecuted people in foreign lands. Once in awhile the cost of choosing conflict oil becomes very palpable and very direct; 9/11 was one of those times, when Saudi oil money </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/middleeast/24saudi.html" target="_hplink"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">was linked </span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">to Al Qaeda. </span></blockquote>
Here's the kicker... 9/11!!!! Mixed in with the last three paragraphs of ethical oil promotional lines.<br />
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I guess the author hasn't heard that a lot of American money was "linked" too:<br />
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To conclude, the momentum behind this war has been building for years. It's no surprise that ethical oil would take advantage of this situation but seriously HuffPost, WTF? The Iran situation is certainly dangerous, it is something we should all be paying close attention to. Last year <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/08/canada-country-in-economic-denial.html">I predicted that oil prices would bounce between $80 and $100</a> for the remainder of 2010 (turned out true, no?). This year with the Iranian, Chinese, and Saudi situations I think we will definitely see $150, I can't say whether or not Zero Hedge's $200 will happen, that seems a little high. If it does happen, oil will be so hard to find on the market that it won't matter I believe.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-17797224706078270812011-11-27T13:43:00.001-07:002011-11-27T14:57:44.078-07:00The rules of engagementIn <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/11/november-mid-month-round-up-occupy-dies.html">my last post</a> I talked about how the Occupy movement is dead, but I also said the revolution had just begun. Of course this is a global revolution I'm talking about, and no Canada isn't really ready to join or even understand -- yet.<br />
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The difference between places that are currently in such a state where revolution is becoming inevitable have become more intense since this "crackdown" on occupiers began. <a href="http://citizensfreepress.org/occupy-edmonton-support-poll">Places like Edmonton have noticed their public support drop significantly</a>. While Edmonton took part in the initial movement, there is no revolution here. This is not to say however that one isn't on the way.<br />
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I've noted several times in past posts that during this global economic collapse, Canada and particularly Alberta are closer to the bottom of the list rather than the top. At some point in the near future a tipping point will be reached where the primary debtor nations we rely on to import large portions of product will simply no longer afford this product. <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/07/next-alberta-economic-boom-will-be.html">In July I noted that our U.S. oil market is stagnating</a>. This is not to say that it will dry up completely, it is to say that growth will not be sufficient. Of course "<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/25/us-crude-asia-idUSTRE7AO04620111125">Harper's bet</a>" was obvious when you consider events <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/23/bloomberg_articlesLV4T8M6K50YN.DTL">such as this</a>. The problem with relying on China though is that on top of energy shortages their economy is over-heated. Their <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/24/us-china-economy-idUSTRE7AN0F920111124">export base is falling out from under them</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-chinese-ghost-cities-2010-12">"housing bubble" is an understatement</a>.<br />
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Alberta may just find itself another stagnating economy by the time we can export to it. The other question of course is exactly how much oil can we supply to keep growth going to stop stagnation? It seems the "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-chinese-ghost-cities-2010-12">whole world</a>" is all of a sudden on our doorsteps; but under ideal conditions we apparently will only be <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/oil-abundance-in-canada-sands-provoking-anxiety-over-lust-for-fossil-fuels.html">providing 3million barrels / day by 2020</a>.<br />
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Oh by the way, if you are having trouble finding that information it is because it far down the page. Notice the structure of these articles. In the second paragraph:<br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">Rivals </span><a class="web_ticker" density="sparse" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=XOM:US" ticker="XOM:US" title="Get Quote" topic_url="http://topics.bloomberg.com/exxon-mobil-corp/"><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)</span></a><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;"> and </span><a class="web_ticker" density="full" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=386:HK" ticker="386:HK" title="Get Quote" topic_url="http://topics.bloomberg.com/china-petroleum-&-chemical-corp/"><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (386)</span></a><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;"> each have bought a piece of Syncrude, one of the dozens of companies that are blasting, digging and steaming soil laden with 143 billion barrels of molasseslike crude called bitumen, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue. Only Saudi Arabia, with 264 billion barrels, and Venezuela, with 211 billion, enjoy greater proven reserves, a BP Plc </span><a density="full" href="http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481" rel="external" title="Open Web Site"><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">energy review</span></a><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">found in June.</span> </blockquote>
But it's not until the 23rd paragraph (albeit some is quoted one liners) that you actually get the important information:<br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">Daily oil-sands </span><a density="full" href="http://www.capp.ca/getdoc.aspx?DocId=190838" rel="external" title="Open Web Site"><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">output</span></a><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;"> will double to 3 million barrels by 2020 and contribute 3 percent of world supply, up from 1.7 percent today, predicts energy researcher </span><a density="full" href="http://www.ihs.com/products/cera/index.aspx" rel="external" title="Open Web Site"><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">IHS CERA</span></a><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;"> in Englewood, Colorado. Neftex’s Wells says he expects that daily output of traditional, non-OPEC crude will hold steady through 2020 and then drop 17 percent to 33 million barrels during the next decade, based on the firm’s worldwide geologic studies.</span> </blockquote>
This brings me back to the coming revolution, yes even here in good ol' Canada. What looks like a "great new oil boom" heading our way is actually an energy scramble amongst the large oil-consuming and stagnating economies. All of these countries at our doorstep need ever-increasing amounts of oil for "economic recovery". By dedicating everything we have to servicing these economies we are tying ourselves to many dying economies, it's the exact same issue as with the U.S.! It might prolong the pain for awhile, but not forever. It's not a solution to anything, and it doesn't address the core problems the global economy currently faces.<br />
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Many people who <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFtpXbWp9Cc">recently discovered they are not in the club,</a> had no idea that was about to happen to them. Some are now joining the fledging Occupy revolution and I truly hope they are awake to what's becoming of our once great society and it is this awakening that government's or rather the system fears the most.<br />
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Recently I read a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/11/26/no-the-crackdown-against-occupy-wall-street-is-not-the-work-of-the-shadowy-elite/">rebuttal</a> by Erik Kain of Forbes (of whom I greatly respect as a journalist) against <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/nov/25/shocking-truth-about-crackdown-occupy?newsfeed=true">Naomi Wolf's recent article on Occupy</a>. His argument against the idea of coordinated action against Occupy (in the form of some sort of conspiracy) was that different cities had been dealing with protestors in different ways. In this case however I have to agree with Wolf.<br />
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Coordinated action never implies the same action. It implies the same result. So what is the goal of a crackdown on Occupy? "Health and Safety" is a bogus cover, yet is appearing everywhere. Its such a weak argument to say these people are in danger in a park, but not elsewhere within the city. It's the sort of double-think we expect in the novel 1984. The idea of absolute control is also too simplistic; just because instructions come from the top doesn't mean everyone on the chain on the way down nessecarily respects or agrees with these decisions. Also I would like to direct Erik to the last 10 minutes of this <a href="http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-lifeboat-hour/2011/11/18/the-lifeboat-hour-112011.html">radio broadcast</a> a police officer calls in talking about "bogus evidence" they are getting from DHS. Naomi in this case is not joking when talking about a coming civil war as the tactics of war are already in use (I don't know if even she knows how serious it actually is though).<br />
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Coordinated action has been occurring here in Canada, before the actual protest even began. The way our government dealt with Occupy was efficient, swift, and to this I have to give them some credit. Our government is a lot better at managing information than the U.S. intelligence is. To the CSIS agents inevitably reading this post, congratulations. You really have stomped out the revolution in the form of Occupy before it even began. Their strategy was simple in hindsight. They advertised the movement weeks in advance, this ensures that professional activists that your average joe has been trying to ignore for years get the heads up. This also provided a comfort to the people learning about it at home, in that they can trust the media to report on it because they heard about it from the media. Essentially they kick started this movement before people were ready but when enough Canadians had shown interest. Their goal? to preempt support for this movement (revolution) in the future.<br />
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Now in the future, when the need truly does arise for us Canadians to join the fight against international bankers the tainted brandname of occupy (and everything it stood for) will no longer be an option. <br />
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My advice to Occupy Edmonton would be to get out of the spotlight, now. Plan for spring, as during this winter it's likely Canada will be taking several severe economic hits. By next spring I believe people will be ready and will need the Occupy movement. Most people here do not yet understand why it's happening and until they do, until they see it in their backyards and their pocket books it will not make any sense. "<a class="l" href="http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=necessity%20mother%20invention&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.phrases.org.uk%2Fmeanings%2Fnecessity-is-the-mother-of-invention.html&ei=ILDSTrbtJIaniQKYxPXlCw&usg=AFQjCNH8n5Wb0rhykawqgXSH_xQZItdFfg&sig2=AtQtHPJ7p68JogdfzKcd8g"><span style="color: #1122cc;">Necessity is the mother of invention</span></a>", and I would also add innovation and that includes innovation in your own frame of mind.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-57897693600187257132011-11-19T14:31:00.001-07:002011-11-20T10:26:35.963-07:00November mid-month round-up: Occupy dies, the New World Order is born, the revolution beginsThe Occupy movement is dead. Seriously. In it's place however is the new American revolution. They look similar, and the new American revolution is still calling itself Occupy, but they are very different.<br />
<br />
I'll point out this difference for you in a very simple contrast of thought:<br />
1) Occupy: When it first started people asked how long it could possibly go on for.<br />
2) The revolution: People are asking how it can possibly end.<br />
<br />
This difference may seem insignificant, but I assure you it is THE difference that makes this now a non-violent revolution. Whether you agree or don't agree with what Occupy has become, one thing everyone can agree on is that it's come so far now that it won't stop and it can't stop. It might change shape, venues, tactics.. but the fight is definitely on. The increase in police oppression shows that the system is aware of this. The status quo is in danger, and they know it.<br />
<br />
The system is also coming out with the truth more and more. <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-20/banks-vow-1-trillion-cuts-as-recapitalization-looms.html">Take this article from Bloomberg/Businessweek</a>:<br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">“Asset sales are impractical in the current environment,” said Simon Maughan, head of sales and distribution at <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/19/mf-global-lawsuit-bofa-goldman-banks_n_1102779.html">MF Global UK Ltd. in London</a>. “Every bank is selling, and no bank is buying. It just won’t work. Beyond that, the magnitude of the cuts the banks are talking about is nowhere near the likely required amount of deleveraging. They need to reduce hundreds of billions more to adjust to the new world order. There has to be a recapitalization.”</span></blockquote>
Thats right, to "adjust to the new world order". That's what the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/world/europe/greece-and-italy-ask-technocrats-to-find-solution.html?pagewanted=all">Greece/Italy technocrats</a> are a part of. You see, the system is currently working on transforming the population into accepting non-democratic economic policies. This is the new world order, it's a lot like the Kings and Serfs from the old world order.<br />
<br />
As the <a href="http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/11/europes-bank-run-continuing-get-worse">European banking system continues to collapse</a> and it becomes obvious this WILL be affecting North American commerce you can expect that the New World Order will be making it's North American appearance soon (probably after the U.S. supercommitee fails), and that the <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/09/another-sleepless-night.html">war on youth</a> I've been blogging about will go into full swing.<br />
<br />
This is an exciting time, scary but exciting. The most important thing you can do to prepare yourself, is to prepare yourself mentally for the what were once unbeliveable situations we are about to witness first hand. This is history in the making.</div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/VqWdyM91hFA" width="560"></iframe></div>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-58357885224964982552011-10-24T02:33:00.001-06:002011-10-24T04:14:03.424-06:00Occupy: Out with the old, in with the newI'm happy to say that since my last post Occupy Edmonton is doing very well. Edmonton (and the whole world) showed tremendous support tonight. I dare say Occupy Edmonton is nearing the amount of critical mass it needs to carry forward as a major movement. But where to?<br />
<br />
All around the world it seems this is becoming the next big question: What is next for the Occupy movement? Will they start political parties? Will they make demands? I've been thinking about it for sometime from a theoretical point-of-view.<br />
<br />
Some of the people who I talked with might remember me saying that ending compound interest for instance might be a good demand. But as this week has gone on I started asking the question 'why should there be demands?' What the people are upset about is obvious. Forcing them to make demands is almost an act of submission in itself, just wrapped in a confidence bow. Sure specifics need to be provided, by why is all of the onus on the people to come up with a credible "societal equitable business plan" and present it to big business/government when they would have us believe they make the big bucks because only they know how to make the big decisions or plan the big plans.<br />
<br />
Obviously this stance by the system is completely contradictory. It serves a purpose though, it allows them to play both sides of the field. Say Occupy does make a plan or demands and we present them; it's highly likely the system comes back and says that it had it's "experts" analyze our plan and it simply won't work for one reason or another. When dealing with a systemic issue as large as we are the number of straw-man arguments is endless, there are countless ways we could restructure and everyone has a different idea what that restructuring looks like. Its simple to come up with an argument against any system, as the perfect system is yet to be invented. If no demands are made at all we make an argument for the system in that "we do not know what we want". This isn't desirable either.<br />
<br />
So seemingly both avenues are cut off. But wait! There is another!! What if the demand is Occupy itself? <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2011-10-22/occupy-wall-street-homeless/50868444/1">Think about it</a>. What if instead of demanding what the people need, the people are actually just doing what the people need? Could our society (for now mostly the U.S. although Canada's turn is coming soon) actually have already reached a point where confidence in the system is so low the people are simply shedding it?<br />
<br />
Look at the U.S. right now, Occupy tent cities everywhere. They are beginning to turn into miniature self-governed communities. If these continue to grow.. what significance is the government anyway? If the government can't take care of the people and is just a revolving door and shell game with the banks, what good is it? What service exactly is it providing?<br />
<br />
This week it occurred to me that the world just might have been looking in the wrong spot. While we were sitting and waiting for demands, we witnessed the birth of a globally supported, internet based governing system. A system based on direct democracy and consensus.<br />
<br />
Lets be honest here and admit <a href="http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/19/20-of-detroit-in-the-dark-paper-says/">society is collapsing</a>, and <a href="http://gigaom.com/cleantech/the-energy-trap/">everything is not ok</a>. As a society we have neglected and underestimated many fundamentals to life which have been lost in our current standard of living. Perhaps without even realizing it the human race is already adapting for the inevitable low-energy future just around the corner. <br />
<br />
Katie from OccupyYEG says "<a href="http://inbetweenbullshit.tumblr.com/">As one voice, and one individual I am proud to state, I am a part of the Occupy Revolution. I will not stand silent, I will not relocate and I will not give up. We do not have hope, we are hope</a>."<br />
<br />
Maybe more than she even knows.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-6342076164601043662011-10-20T19:04:00.000-06:002011-10-22T20:31:56.054-06:00Reflections on Occupy / My experience with Occupy Edmonton<blockquote style="color: #666666;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">"We Will Lead Every Revolution Against Us" -- </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Theodor Herzl</span></blockquote>
It's unfortunate I have to write this post as I have been an avid supporter of the Occupy Wall Street movement before it even began in the United States. During the first week there was a media blackout at which point I told many people that "there is an occupation of Wall Street going on right now". "Yea right", they said "I would have heard about it on the news.". Before Occupy Wall Street even started <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/09/another-sleepless-night.html">I have been writing about it abstractly</a>. So before you assume I am an Occupy hater, realize that to me this movement isn't a prime time fad.<br />
<br />
Sure enough, a few days after this embarrassing act by the NYPD, Occupy gained internet fame:<br />
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At this point mainstream media had no choice but to report on the growing protests and in the U.S. a new symbol of hope for America's youth has risen to create a uniting front against corruption and fraud. Most of what you see on TV regarding the movement is heavily doctored to sway your opinion regarding it. Following the original livestreams is the only true way to know you are not being lied to during this trying time.<br />
<br />
In the U.S. the media made a fatal mistake, they attempted to ignore the message instead of control it in hopes that the movement would get bored and go home. In the week the media was ignoring the protests, hundreds of thousands found out about it and instantly lost all trust in anything media was telling them. Control is essential in <a href="http://books.google.ca/books?id=Tm7JAAAACAAJ&dq=public+relations+bernays&hl=en&ei=YJygTvjvCIqyiQK32qwy&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCwQ6AEwAA">public relations</a>. This failure has ensured the U.S. movement became a success.<br />
<br />
In Canada, it seems media and government learned from the mistakes of the U.S. We decided to control the message right away, taking this power away from Occupy itself and giving a heads up to any "activists" who always seem to end up where the cameras are. Articles like <a href="http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/1266756.html">this</a> showed up 10 days in advance. In fact on October 2nd I made a note of it on Twitter:<br />
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From this point on I decided to be cautious until I could confirm it's legitimacy as it was obvious that parts of this movement were not naturally occurring as they were in the U.S. In the U.S. the people did not need the mainstream media to tell them about the event to make it successful and here they were practically promoting it. This is a red flag.</div>
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Sure enough when I discovered that there would be an Occupy Edmonton, Mike Hudema's name (the Greenpeace mouthpiece) showed up as one of the organizers. About a year ago I contacted Mike Hudema about a possible interview regarding his views on peak oil, he never did respond. Suffice to say, I don't think he has any interest in representing this:</div>
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It looks more like he's interested in stuff like <a href="http://www.edmontonsun.com/2011/10/19/marchers-hand-alberta-environment-eviction-notice">this</a>. Greenpeace stuff, it looks like. I'd like to direct your attention to <a href="http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/prspctvs/200008-eng.asp">this article put out by CSIS</a>. Does that sound like a government that wants to promote Anti-Globalization to you? How much have you heard about Anti-Globalization and banking fraud in relation to Occupy Edmonton? I'm not talking about "Ending Capitalism" here. I'm talking about addressing events like <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/40826339/Non_US_Banks_Gained_from_Fed_Crisis_Fund">this</a>:<br />
<blockquote style="color: #444444;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Some of the world’s strongest banks have profited from an emergency credit facility set up by the <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/" target="_blank"><b>US Federal Reserve</b></a> to shore up confidence in the global financial system, according to a Financial Times analysis of data released by the Fed..</span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<div style="color: #444444;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Rabobank of the Netherlands and Toronto-Dominion of Canada, two of the only banks in the world with triple A credit ratings, used more than $20 billion in cumulative Taf loans.</span></div>
<div class="textBodyBlack" style="color: #444444;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span id="byLine"></span>Ed Clark, TD chief executive, said that using Taf was logical even though his bank never had a liquidity problem. “That wasn’t how we made a lot of money. But you make a dollar here, you make a dollar there. What’s the spread you make on a billion dollars?” he said.</span></div>
</blockquote>
My bet would be little or none. <br />
<br />
I don't know much about the other two media moguls of Occupy Edmonton. Mike Thomas (who blogs at <a href="http://adhdcanuck.ca/">adhdcanuck.ca</a>) seems to be your run-of-the-mill environment activist. I know even less about Chelsea Taylor. I don't watch TV, so I haven't really been keeping up with interviews.<br />
<br />
On Tuesday, I went down during the day, while taking a moment from work (If you don't get it yet, Occupy isn't about hippies who don't want to work contrary to the opinions of the likes of Michael Moore, and the other camera whores that pretend to be "alternative". Hey Michael, if you love socialism so much why are your documentaries *pay only* unlike <a href="http://pressfortruth.ca/">pressfortruth.ca</a> which is pro-capitalism and puts theirs out for free?) and during my time there some Greenpeace activists were across the street from the Occupy camp. With my megaphone I told them they should come over and join us, in response they smiled but decided to stay across the street. I made a mental note that this was fairly strange considering the Greenpeace spokes-person on oilsands was just across the street. Red flag number 2.<br />
<br />
I also happened to witness a certain conversation between Mike Thomas and another participant at Occupy Edmonton. I will not release this persons name on this blog as he is not recognizable via media. Mr. Thomas was worried about some routine security problems and required a "chief of security". He assigned this position to the participant I was having a conversation with and told him he could gather volunteers. I offered to be a volunteer but due to my schedule I never actually ended up participating in any "security services". He went on to mention that it would be confirmed at the general assembly that night and consensus on the new position would be taken, but that in the midterm the position was required until then. I could not remain at Occupy long enough to witness the General Assembly myself, so I cannot say if that happened or not. For the moment I thought nothing of it and continued enjoying the protest until I left.<br />
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Throughout history revolutions have happened a lot, and yet they usually end up in tragedy. <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/christian-protesters-attacked-egypt-170708928.html">Take Egypt for instance</a>. Often a desperate population will latch on to anything that even <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html">resembles a leader</a> in the hopes it will bring freedom, even if they don't have their best interests at heart. Hitler, the Russian revolution, the list goes on and on. A disenfranchised population combined with demoralization and copious amounts of propaganda can easily be manipulated into following a Napoleon into their own battle of Waterloo, and that is exactly what I feel is happening to Occupy Edmonton.<br />
<br />
By the time I got home Tuesday, I had a direct message waiting for me on Twitter from one of my followers asking if I knew what was going on with some incident involving a chief of security banning representatives from <a href="http://kikkiplanet.com/">kikkiplanet.com</a>. This was the first I had heard of it, and I had only passing familiarity with the Kikki Planet blog. I replied that I would look into it further.<br />
<br />
Now one thing Occupy has been doing (for the most part) is taking the moral high ground. It's why they are winning. It's why <a href="http://twitter.com/occupylapd">the LAPD has a twitter account dedicated to supporting Occupy</a>. Truth and honesty always win, and since this movement revolves around corruption it is ever more important. While the system <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1624551235">puts out failures</a>, the people stand united and outraged yet courteous and honest. New York avoided eviction by cleaning the park better than the company hired to clean it had. That's how you win against these assholes. That's how you avoid public relations nightmares. While media and big business plays friendly towards Occupy, they are just waiting for that big PR fuck up that will make their day!<br />
<br />
I put on my sleuthing hat and away we went. First I had to catch up on the situation, reading Twitter, Facebook, comments on articles. I then decided to contact KikkiPlanet and see if I could get more details. At this point I was simply interested in avoiding a PR disaster. Occupy has enough trouble gaining support in Edmonton it certainly didn't need this. After conversing with Kikkiplanet.com and determining I had enough background on the situation, I decided to write a letter to act as a Proposal for the Occupy Edmonton General Assembly by proxy. I had too much work to do to make it down in person so I left the delivery to someone I felt I could trust regarding the subject matter. Kikkiplanet.com had positively confirmed to me that the "security chief" in question was the participant I met earlier.<br />
<br />
Here is the proposal I wrote:<br />
<blockquote>
<span style="color: #666666; font-size: xx-small;">Good Evening Occupy YEG,<br /><br /> This is a proposal by proxy and thank you to the one reading it.<br /><br /> It's come to my attention that there has been a somewhat hostile exchange<br />between Occupy and the blog Kikkiplanet.com. While I was not directly involved<br />in any of the exchange I decided of my own accord to try and mediate a peace.<br /><br />Occupy is very important for myself, and all of it's participants. We will<br />face many struggles and proper representation of what we are, and what our<br />opinion is very important. I think we can all agree that no one opinion<br />represents this movement. I think we can also recognize that with no leaders<br />we all are responsible for the movement's actions.<br /><br />I therefore propose to the GA that a formal apology is constructed by the<br />group for the ill-will Kikkiplanet.com has received. I'd ask our participants<br />to hold no ill-will towards any media, as I am confident that when they see<br />what we are really about they will be fair.<br /><br />I believe in our movement, and that the GA can properly address this issue,<br />and all parties can move on and focus on the important problems in society.<br /><br />Kikkiplanet.com has requested to me to relay that they wish to publish an<br />unedited version of tonight's GA baseline minutes. Please oblige.<br /><br />@RichardFantin</span></blockquote>
I waited for word of the result.<br />
<br />
A few hours later the person I had asked to deliver my proposal returned. They told me that they had delivered my proposal to someone named 'Rob' and he promised it would be read. During their time at Occupy Edmonton they had a chance to talk with Mike Thomas. They asked him about the exchange between Occupy Edmonton and KikkiPlanet. His reply was that the security chief position has never existed and that Occupy is being set up. I then confirmed this response with KikkiPlanet who had been told the same thing by Occupy Edmonton even though she sent them emails from the "security chief" in question which proclaim her to be banned. I have been forwarded all correspondence, it is authentic.<br />
<br />
So there is now a cover-up underway. Occupy Edmonton was facing a small bump in terms of PR stemming from a negative blog post from Kikkiplanet.com seemingly based on misunderstanding. They are now facing failure. The person I sent down to Occupy told me they were shocked how many times Mike Thomas said "I'm in charge".<br />
<br />
Charging into Waterloo.<br />
<br />
*ADDENDUM*<br />
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I hope OccupyYeg can work past this issue and truly respect the spirit of Occupy. Here's a hint about what that spirit stands for (we're better than politicians, aren't we?):<br />
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Oh and this has nothing to do with my post, but here is a true hero:<br />
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</div>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-32810447397891421322011-10-14T19:09:00.000-06:002011-10-14T19:09:53.727-06:00#YEGArena Tales: Santa Katz and the gift of debtThe mystery surrounding <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Arena+meetings+productive+Mandel/5542324/story.html">Stephen Mandel's trip to New York</a> is over and the word is in; Daryl Katz and Stephen Mandel have a new deal for the city. For those who haven't been following Edmonton's newest attempt to catch the dangling carrot of becoming a "big city", prior to this meeting two main sticking points about the arena existed:<br />
<ol><li>A non-compete clause with Northlands</li>
<li>$100million in funding outstanding</li>
</ol>Post New York it seems they managed to "sort out" the non-compete clause. Katz has withdrawn this request and has instead replaced it with a public-private marketing campaign for the city of Edmonton (I *think* it's about the city, although it sounds more like a campaign about visiting Edmonton's new arena). Considering the ridiculousness of such a request of the city in the first place I don't exactly see this as "productive" since the $100million (arguably the most important sticking point) is still outstanding.<br />
<br />
What else has changed? Well it appears the city will now be putting up 100% of the cost up front, with a 30-year "rent-to-own" style lease of 5.5million / year for the $100million Katz was supposed to contribute. Of course Mandel says the city would "ensure" that the $100million is paid, but with the city's *amazing* negotiation skills how confident can anyone really be on that point?<br />
<br />
The live chat was again filled with the pro-arena Nike addicts, chanting their "Just do it" slogan. Seriously guys, you watch too much TV. Last weekend while visiting with my parents we all watched the game. I found it shocking how many Money Mart and other payday loan commercials I saw. Thinking about it though, is it really so shocking? Here you have a group of people whose argument for hastily spending a large portion of taxpayer dollars while taking on considerable risk is "Just do it", Money Mart must be getting rich.<br />
<br />
So it would appear that Santa Katz this year brings us the gift of debt. Of course we can be completely confident this loan (give away?) will be paid. We can be confident of this because their reasoning for needing public money in the first place is that the industry would go bankrupt otherwise. As we all know, taxpayer dollars are magical and never go bankrupt. So yes, the new twist of logic is "We can't go to a bank and get a loan, we'll loose money. We can however go to the city and get a loan and pay that back 100%".<br />
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<br />
<br />
No investor could realistically take Santa Katz seriously, and that is probably why he doesn't have any.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-50167286166421125902011-09-27T14:45:00.002-06:002011-10-12T12:49:37.855-06:00My solution to the Edmonton arena debate | #yegarenaUgh, this arena debate just isn't going away. Now it appears the city wants to <a href="http://edmonton.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110927/EDM_arena_110927/20110927/?hub=EdmontonHome">preemptively buy the land for 25million</a> (on top of the arena's tag price, and infrastructure costs). Some of the ignorant comments in the live chat such as "Like Nike, Just Do It!" shows the severely irrational mentality behind justifying this frivolous expense.<br />
<br />
So I'm going to propose a plan that should make everyone happy. It will transfer the risk to those invested in the arena. It will provide returns in as secure a sense as the free market can provide. It will leave the city free to spend it's money on the many high-grade infrastructure upgrades that will be needed should funding be raised. Finally it will give Edmontonian's (or other Albertans, probably open to other investors too) who want to build up, have input, and support the arena a direct way to do this.<br />
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Now before I explain this plan, I am in no way vouching for the success of the project itself. Even if this approach were taken, I would not be investing my own money expecting a return. Like any investment this one would be folly to the market's mood and if you read my other posts on this blog my long term outlook for the current global economic system is clear. However that aside, let's see how we can solve everyone's issues here.<br />
<br />
First, the main arguments for and against (as I understand them):<br />
<ul>
<li>Katz should be using the free market if he is certain about the return on investment.</li>
<li>Maintenance alone is not worth 100% of return on investment.</li>
<li>The questionable non-compete clause.</li>
<li>We are in a deficit and the arena is a luxury item.</li>
<li>The meetings are too secretive.</li>
<li>Infrastructure upgrading </li>
</ul>
<br />
<ul>
<li>It's believed the arena will contribute to revitalizing downtown.</li>
<li>The costs to renovate/modernize Rexall are also high.</li>
<li>The Oilers might leave without an upgraded facility.</li>
<li>The facility would probably get heavy use by non-hockey events.</li>
<li>There are high hopes that an arena will springboard an expansion in commercial service in the area.</li>
<li>It's a 1 time opportunity for the city.</li>
<li>If not an arena, then what?</li>
<li>And finally, Katz says he loves Edmonton.</li>
</ul>
So how do we solve all of these issues and make everyone happy? We need to both please those for and against the arena, this is a large investment and those not confident in it should not be obligated to fund it. So the solution? We need a competitive bond process. Ownership of this arena needs to be on the open market. We've had partial open ownership of the Oilers before. So let me break this down for you.<br />
<br />
Right now it's estimated that the cost is $450 million broken down:<br />
<ul>
<li>$100 from Katz Group.</li>
<li>$125 directly from city.</li>
<li>$125 loan from the city, which will be paid back with a utility fee in the future.</li>
<li>$100 is remaining without a source.</li>
</ul>
What I would propose is to drop everything except the utility fee. The utility fee would remain but not to repay a loan from the city, instead it would go towards dividend payouts. Once the shares were put on the open market, Katz could *buy* his $100million worth of ownership (or however much he deemed fit) and the rest would be put up for bids. As time went on, this would give the Katz Group opportunity to buy back all of the shares for complete ownership and would minimize their risk.<br />
<br />
Under this model, I also would not be *AS* opposed to city investment in the arena as there would be a direct return and we'd be able to cash out and have another player buy the shares. This would also give the hockey players themselves a chance to invest in the stadium they play in, giving them direct input. Other investors, and hockey fans would get direct input by holding shares.<br />
<br />
So lets see, this solves the issue of <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Arena+details+before+vote/5452754/story.html">Katz circumventing the free market system in hopes of placing himself in a monopoly</a>. If he wants a non-compete clause with Northlands that is his business, but it's not the city's business to give him an edge over an already established business and then demand a monopoly. It solves the issue that the city is getting very little in return as like any other investor it could get as much a return as anyone else depending on free market risk. It places all risk and reward directly on the shoulders of those with direct interest in the success of a luxury item. I personally do not believe with the current credit crisis that an arena will increase growth, so why should I personally be on the hook with all risk and no reward? This mitigates that for me, and also leaves those who think that like Nike "Just Do It" to cover the cost. They might then make financial decisions off information instead of propaganda slogans.<br />
<br />
Under this proposal all meetings would need to be 100% transparent to convince investors it's a viable opportunity. Good bye shadowy city counsel meetings, it should be 100% public and this system would ensure that.<br />
<br />
When it comes to infrastructure upgrading, the city would have a lot more resources in terms of state of the art infrastructure without an already large commitment to the facility itself, and any commitment like I said would provide direct returns thus topping up the infrastructure fund if the city chooses to put it there.<br />
<br />
Since everything on the pro-side is theoretical or fan-based, I don't see why it doesn't meet the needs. It certainly would show Edmontonians how much Katz loves us and the city by giving us direct input. It would give the expected commercial services the chance to have a direct investment in the facility as well.<br />
<br />
That's my idea, I'll be refining it as I think about it more, but I think this model pretty well solves all of the major issues and controversies regarding the arena and should make everyone happy, or at least get their happiness out of city council’s hands as they are supposed to work for all people and any deal brokered by the city isn't going to work for everyone.<br />
<br />
I am still refining this solution, so please comment with your constructive criticism. Additional factors I should consider, whatever...Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-62576053635902869212011-09-10T12:33:00.000-06:002011-09-17T16:27:50.705-06:00In a war of ideology, everyone loses<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Not long ago a naive younger version of myself decided he would be ‘left-wing’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For many years I subscribed to this ideology. I amongst many others took part in partisan flame-wars on news article comments. “Everyone on the right doesn’t have a clue”, I told myself.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Five years later, my perspective has changed considerably. I no longer identify with any ideology. Today I rarely even bother to look at what our politicians are saying, because I already know what they are saying. They are promoting whatever ideology they have subscribed to. They will paint today’s issues with a partisan brush and explain how only their ideology can work. It seems that no matter what sort of problem society encounters all it will take to solve it is a subscription to a specific ideology.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Reality tends to dictate though, that whatever your plan is unforseen circumstances will likely screw with it. This is why life on this planet is adaptive. Life adapts to the circumstances of which it finds itself in. In the last 100 years, with the advent of the petroleum based society which arguably for the first time in human history has provided more surplus than we know how to handle a new problem emerged. How do we control and distribute these resources? It is from this question that the modern left and right ideologies formed. Free market vs. Communism. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Today the world faces vastly different problems than it did 100 years ago and yet<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we continue to frame all debates within these two very limited views on society. These views are not adaptive, they do not acount for unforseen circumstances. No one who subscribes to these views truly lives by either of them 100%. Many of those on the right are all too happy during a natural disaster to have governmental disaster relief. Take for instance the recent fire in ultra-conservative Alberta. Even though the government is giving money for rebuilding efforts no one is saying this defies the free market response. Albertans have been accepting of government intervention in this unforseen circumstance. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">When push comes to shove in society, ideology goes out the window in favour of critical thinking. The rules of our virtual ideologies do not apply when the “greater good” is deemed imminently threatened. When a crisis is occurring most people are focused on what needs to be done, not who and how they are going to do it. These considerations do not matter in a crisis, there’s a job to be done and someone’s got to do it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Yet when the crisis subsides the ideologies take hold again. The petty arguing between citizens resumes over petty issues. Who they think should provide health care, the government or corporations for instance. Both sides overlook the fact they both want the best healthcare to be provided, and that should be the primary concern or ‘root’ problem to solve.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anyone who has ever debated me in politics may or may not have noticed that I refuse to use political labels. When I discuss issues you will not hear the words socialism, capitalism, etc, etc. I don’t use them because they don’t really mean anything when there is a problem to solve. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Since I’m a programmer, I will explain this using a programming analogy. Many people today have a favorite O/S of which you can find flame wars all over the internet debating which is “better”. Few of these arguments though put the phrase “better” in a circumstance. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">IE:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“Windows is better for new users.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“Linux is better for security professionals.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“Android is better for embedded devices.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Instead most of these discussions are absolutes, “Windows is better.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">When I’m approached for a development contract, my first question is always “what is the exact problem you are trying to solve?”. I don’t ask what their favorite O/S is, or if they have a preferred language. The reason? The preferred language or platform may not be the best choice for the particular problem. You might want a desktop app to manage your database, but I insist a centralized corporate website is better!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I can tell them what is the best solution to their problem because I evaluate all tools available without bias. Just because I do not like Windows does not mean I automatically rule out Windows as a tool to solve problems. This is the approach that is needed today in politics. As a society we must learn to address the root problem, and use all tools available to do it. Just as Linux is not the best O/S for every situation, the left (or right) is not always the best ideology for a given situation. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">What we need to do to solve today’s problems is focus on critical thinking first and foremost. Not until all available tools are given equal weight will a true solution to our problems emerge. I don’t just mean left and right either, as I mentioned before these ideologies are mostly about resource distribution. None of the mainstream ideologies account for things like “finite resources”, instead opting for infintie growth. These ideologies were developed at a time when things like oil production and consumption might have been a sidenote on someone’s napkin at best. They were developed at a time when the majority of economic activity took place within a countries borders. We need to fully step back and address today’s problems without bias. We need to be open to modern technology, and the infinite amount of tools available to us. We need to understand that today’s world is neither socialist, nor capitalist.</span></div>
Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-36090503899834413852011-09-07T05:07:00.002-06:002011-09-07T16:08:22.131-06:00Another sleepless nightIt's 3:45am. For the past week I've had a churning in my stomach I can't shake, and with it I can't sleep. So much is on my mind, but so much is always on my mind -- why should this week be any different? So I'm going to just sit here, and write in my little space on the internet. I don't know yet even what I'm going to write about.<br />
<br />
I can almost sense that the moment of just utter economic panic is closing in now. Since 9/11 who could have believed what we've seen? What we've witnessed? The G20s to riots in London. An utter war rampage in which now it's "nothing big" when we start attacking or invading a new country, It's seemingly become our right, and our right alone (NATOs) to globally police the world. I'm sick of it, seriously plain sick of it. Is this really all our "civilized" and "progressive" society is going to do? Wage war for the earth's remaining petroleum reserves while enslaving the future generations to debt servitude? These days it sure seems like it. So many people I speak to are so adjusted to the constant atmosphere of war and terror played on repeat to us through our discount Chinese slave labour TV screens.<br />
<br />
Even when presented with extreme contradiction, such as <a href="http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/28941580/detail.html">NATO claiming to be worried about Al-Qaeda gaining access to Libya's weapon arsenal</a> while simultaneously <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html">admitting that the "rebel" leader has links to Al-Qaeda</a>! And people seriously believe this crap about our "war on terror"? Get over yourselves and the false sense of reality you have. <a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/08/31/the-top-ten-myths-in-the-war-against-libya/">Our leaders are liars</a>.<br />
<br />
This post isn't about Libya though, I still don't know what it's about. Maybe it's about the fact that the number of problems the world has on it's plate is overwhelming? Or maybe it's about the fact these problems are being left to a <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/05/business/fi-la-boomer-inheritance-20110906">generation that will have no resources</a> while the baby boomers drool over their stock portfolios and all of the monopoly money they think it will bring? Or how 10 years later it's perfectly O.K. that civil servants and the population was lied to about <a href="http://news.ca.msn.com/canada/video.aspx?cp-documentid=d34e246c-5ec7-4c59-85ea-8e12b6aee4ad">dust not being toxic from 9/11</a>? The number of inconsistencies, lies, and glaring holes in not just 9/11 but the entire economic and political systems continue to mount and where is our Canadian voice? I'm still not hearing it. We are not going to be able to vote to fix these issues. Not at a federal level at least. The corruption of our system is utter and complete to the point where deception and propaganda infiltrates our lives almost 24/7. Marketing agencies are on a constant search to see where they can put ads next to get in your face. Cable companies continue to extend the time given to ads and then <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/cable-providers-warned-about-a-subscriber-revolution/article2154062/">wonder why people are leaving their services</a>. It's amazing anyone manages to end the day having any independent thoughts that weren't baked up for them by a public relations team.<br />
<br />
The double-think in our world I believe can literally drive a non-adjusted person insane. If your memory is longer than 5 years then watch out; the plain criminality and denial can be a lot to handle. But no, none of these things are what is keeping me up tonight. So, what could it be?<br />
<br />
I don't get this feeling often, maybe its some sort of super-power? I wish. It just feels like a climax of unseen proportions is barreling our way. Today was an insane news day. I'm still processing everything and trying to understand it. It seems Canada is stepping up it's police state. Two announcements today: <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/09/06/stephen-harper_n_951367.html?ref=tw">Stephen Harper is predictably reinstating the charter violating anti-terror laws</a> and in Vancouver's riot report, the "<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/police-riot-report-calls-for-end-of-some-large-public-events-in-vancouver/article2154812/">recommendations</a>" certainly raise some suspicions. Take note of the vague terms such as 'hooligan demographic'. Do you know what that is? It's anyone, like "terrorist". I find it interesting in light of London which may arguably have the most CCTV cameras in the entire world and still had the recent riot, CCTV is still being recommended for riot prevention. Watch how fast 'hooligan' and 'terrorist' become one and the same. The writing is all over the wall at this point, Canadians really need to start noticing the path we are on. If you have never seen it, you need to see <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zejD0UkMGGY">Into the fire</a> -- this is their preparation for whatever is in store. I've been writing now for some time about how Canada will soon be in the same economic boat as the other western powers, does it still seem so unbelievable? If it does I'm sorry to say, but you have been brainwashed. Repeated statements such as 'economic stability' and all the other crap these politicians spout might sound fancy, but critically think about what they have said. Are they saying anything? Our banks are stable because we have "regulations"? Give me a break; we use fractional reserve banking, fiat currency and compound interest just like every other ponzi fiat economy. They are not stable, Canada's just in a different spot in the economic food chain. Just today I read an article about <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/putting-the-poison-back-in-the-pill/article2155554/">how we had better drop our "hostile corporate takeover" regulations</a>. "Hostile takeovers in the U.S. are a lot more difficult" -- I almost pissed my pants laughing. Harder for who? Those not on the inside.<br />
<br />
Am i rambling? I can't even tell anymore. There are so many problems, but in reality they are all one problem. A failed naked system, an emperor not only with no clothes, but no money in the bank either. The world's last economic hope of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/06/us-china-economy-safe-idUSTRE7850F020110906">China has just reported that they anticipate a slowdown of growth in their economy</a>. Probably because <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may/27/business/la-fi-china-power-20110527">they are short on energy to grow it</a>. It's simple logic, you see. But does either article point to the conclusions of the other? No. Everything is compartmentalized and packaged with a neat little bow for your half-thought out consumption.<br />
<br />
I can feel tensions in my generation are growing. It's not a simple anger boiled around politics or economics. It's a complex, deep seeded anger, that either consciously or unconsciously is on every youths mind. When we see articles today about the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/05/us-investment-pension-idUSTRE78424420110905?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/topNews+%28News+/+US+/+Top+News%29">baby boomer pensions crisis</a> it's pretty well a huge red flag of hopelessness for future generations already debt ridden. If anyone from my generation believes there will ever be a pension waiting for them, it's a false belief. Maybe it's more faith than belief. Or even normalcy? My generation has been taught that you work hard, live it good, then retire. It's another form of double-think, we are constantly told by the system that everything is ok, and yet if there is a debt crisis now, a pension crisis now, what hope do we have in 40 years? This feeling of hopelessness is inherently political. It really makes me angry when simple-minded supporters of this corruption boil down events like the London or Vancouver riots to simple phrases. One of the more common one's I heard was "Well what do you mean they're poor? They've all got ipods and are tweeting.". Well what do you expect? this comes back to the 24/7 corporate invasion into our life. Madness that can drive actions like <a href="http://www.pcworld.com/article/229318/kid_sells_kidney_for_ipad_2_regrets_transaction.html">this</a>. This isn't 1991, you don't need to be rich to have a cellphone, and most carriers are more than happy to sign multi-year contracts providing the phones for free. Just like how governments keep adjusting the CPI so that real inflation is hidden. Oh the price of food went up? That's ok, kids will just buy more Ipods because they are cheaper. This is the lunacy of the system we surround ourselves with, and then wonder why it's blowing up in our face.<br />
<br />
The response from the system is becoming obvious. A campaign against western youth is well underway. The system knows we are long overdue for a generational revolution, and it just doesn't want to let go. It'll come none-the-less though, it's inevitable. Just as civil unrest has spread like wildfire in Europe and the Arab nations, it will be here too. One day in your streets you will see <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TISVUy-P9M4">events like this</a> for yourself. They are gearing up for a war against the generation they've stolen everything from. They know most of us will figure it out one day, and when that day comes the propaganda against them will be in full effect.<br />
<br />
I'm going to try to sleep now.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-76215204136473684982011-09-02T12:52:00.003-06:002011-09-10T10:36:13.313-06:0010 years later, 9/11 questions rage on10 years and 3 wars later with Osama Bin Laden apparently <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-the-us-dumped-bin-ladens-body-in-the-oceannbsp-mainly-to-prevent-his-burial-site-from-becoming-an-in-2011-5">buried in the ocean</a> many questions still remain about 9/11. For instance, if even 1% of the questions presented in the following presentations cannot be answered, then there is something the U.S. government has lied about. By the way, <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/08/16/First-responders-not-invited-to-Sept-11-event/UPI-94071313530158/">the 9/11 first responders are not allowed to be at the 10th aniversary</a>.<br />
<br />
These are listed in an order of quality. From best to worst. I do not subscribe to every theory presented here, I am only pointing out that there is a large number of questions and only a small number of them are needed as proof of an insider conspiracy.<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Mike Ruppert - The truth and lies of 9/11<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/fZNvSX3A7pc" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
AIA Architect Richard Gage (part 1): 9/11 Symposium 11/03/07 <br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kjJzlcdtlkU" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br />
Architect Richard Gage (part2) :9/11 Symposium 11/03/07<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/MQ4MXU_-_2Q" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Loose Change 9/11: An American Coup<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="220" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/14946983?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0" width="400"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Truth Rising<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/VpZ2JSCQrb0" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
9/11: Road to Tyranny<br />
<embed allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" id="VideoPlayback" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=-6517776133137328105&hl=en&fs=true" style="height: 326px; width: 400px;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></div><br />
My thoughts go out to the families of this tragedy. One day you will have closure.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-73649191209093382582011-08-29T15:01:00.007-06:002011-09-05T14:42:34.902-06:00Forbes openly admits to internment camps in the U.S.A.Update* Forbes is sourcing bogus stuff. I have contacted the author to either verify or correct.<br />
<br />
Update2* I've contacted the author, and he was not aware the source was bogus. Bloomberg has not made this announcement, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kbr-awarded-homeland-security-contract-worth-up-to-385m">at least not yet</a>. I still recommend giving these videos a watch though.<br />
<br />
<br />
ORIGINAL ARTICLE <br />
===========================================================<br />
In the wake of hurricane Irene <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/08/28/crime-in-the-wake-of-hurricane-irene/">Forbes is reporting</a> that Mayor Michael Bloomberg has warned looters they will be put in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment#Internment_camps">internment camps</a> if caught. This is a shocking development, and leads me to believe that the United State's (and Canada's?) network of internment camps is now running and operational. This could signal that they expect economic crisis in the very near term.<br />
<br />
The notable paragraph:<br />
<blockquote>In New York City, Mayor Bloomberg chose not to evacuate the criminals in Rikers Island, <a href="http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/08/rikers-island-prisoners-irene"><span style="color: #0f2d5f;">according to <em>Mother Jones</em></span></a>. The mayor has<a href="http://weeklyworldnews.com/headlines/37662/mayor-bloomberg-looters-will-be-put-in-internment-camps/"><span style="color: #0f2d5f;"> also warned</span></a> that any looters caught during or in<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/us/29hurricane.html"><span style="color: #0f2d5f;"> the wake of the storm </span></a>will be placed in internment camps. This raises questions about the role of law enforcement and order during a natural disaster.</blockquote>===========================================================<br />
<br />
More information:<br />
<div align="center"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/WxOAK7iOlVk" width="560"></iframe></div><br />
<br />
Into the fire (I believe this is preparation or training for the same thing in Canada):<br />
<div align="center"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/zejD0UkMGGY" width="560"></iframe></div>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-11771009711574590412011-08-18T21:05:00.002-06:002011-08-18T21:05:25.905-06:00Debt Collapse - $20,000 Gold - Mike Maloney (FULL PRESENTATION)<div align="center"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tj2s6vzErqY" width="560"></iframe></div>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-85295381925737910902011-08-18T15:06:00.006-06:002011-08-21T02:56:05.331-06:00Canada: A country in economic denialWell the market since the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-aaa-rating-us-2011-8">S&P downgrade of U.S. debt</a> has been a fun ride huh? Gold continues to set what seem like daily records while stocks are "<a href="http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/gold-bug-is-no-longer-just-for-the-crazy-people?ocid=tweet">only slightly higher than a decade ago</a>". But all of these lightning fast developments have not shaken the faith Canadians (and in particular, Albertans) have in the positive outlook on the economy. Canadians still believe that the politicians we call leaders had "no idea" this was going to happen. We are a country in economic denial.<br />
<br />
Psychologically it is no different than when a wealthy business man looses their job, their house, and will continue to dress in suits even though they live in a car. This is becoming commonplace amongst the U.S. population whose jobless outlook is bleaker by the day. It is indeed a psychological issue, and is quite prominent amongst our population too.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.titanic-nautical.com/images/Titanic/Wallpaper/titanic-nautical-800.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" qaa="true" src="http://www.titanic-nautical.com/images/Titanic/Wallpaper/titanic-nautical-800.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">No one believed the titanic could sink either...</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">For instance, last week when I tweeted that <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/05/canadas-economy-good-bad-and-bullshit.html">I had successfully predicted the Bank of Canada interest rate dilemma</a> i received an overly rude message from a fellow Albertan which said "Being essentially the smartest man alive, I'm sure you've turned all your nostradamus like predictions into millions ". This is a typical reaction from someone that is in denial, and finds the topics I write about truly frightening. So frightening that to effectively deal with them he must fantasize about nostradamus like "fortune tellers", which normally are quite crazy to put his mind at ease. For it is simply impossible that Canada is not in the pristine economic shape it has been claiming and anyone with evidence or opinions to the contrary must be crazy.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div>My prediction wasn't the work of nostradamus. It was a simple conclusion based on a trend being set by current events; the outcome was obvious and I explained briefly the logic to reach the conclusion. All it takes to make such a prediction is to stay current with events, and to think for yourself. The sender of this message obviously hasn't actually read anything I've written, otherwise he would be well aware that millions in fiat money is just what I have been saying it is. Worthless. Why would I want it? I write what I write because it is what I think, and I strongly *hope* that at least a few Albertans and Canadians were inspired to prepare for their futures from my words; that is all, not money, nor twitter followers. I personally don't care if you listen to me or not -- ultimately we are all in charge of our lives, but what we all have in common is that we are on the Canadian economic titanic together. It is your choice whether you want to believe this ship isn't sinkable or not, I surely won't convince you otherwise if you believe it's unsinkable in the first place.<br />
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Of course, having provincial and federal governments that also are in denial are not helping matters. <a href="http://www.edmontonsun.com/2011/06/29/alberta-deficit-better-than-expected">Alberta has announced that it's deficit is in better shape than first thought</a>. Of course these numbers are all based on events before the U.S. downgrade during a period where oil was sky-rocketing. As I have reiterated <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/08/conflict-over-ethical-oil.html">over</a> and <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/03/understanding-real-why-behind-albertas.html">over</a> and <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/08/rundown-on-albertas-future.html">over</a> again; the oilsands can *ONLY* bring in a profit during large upward moves and it is unlikely with <a href="http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/oil-down-four-per-cent-on-economic-data-1?ocid=tweet">world-wide economic growth outlooks</a> that we will see $120 oil again this year, and it will be rare that we see $100. I predict the price will remain between $80-$100 for the rest of the year. This of course means all of the profit predictions being made by the Alberta government are based on the Q1 run up in oil prices. again as I've explained many times though, input costs take longer to catch up to the price of oil than profits do and once the bar is set for $80-$100 input costs all of those market riding profits are going to dry up. We've already seen this happen once before, remember when $70 was "high and profitable"? Now the government dreads a $70 oil price. It's also a one way road, meaning that input costs don't come down. What happens instead? <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+drop+threatens+oilsands+megaprojects/5224477/story.html">the projects shut down</a>. The Alberta and Federal governments have been playing Russian roulette with the Albertan (and Canadian) economies with the full support of an uninformed population in economic denial. They are uninformed because an informed populace would have seen the direct connection between Alberta's "growth" in the last few years and the U.S. QE programs. An informed populace would have noticed how in 2008 we lost hundreds of thousands of jobs the moment injections of cash from the U.S. stopped flowing into American businesses in Canada.<br />
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As I often say to my friends "if Canada was any other country [without our vast natural resources], we'd be so broke we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves". We may quite possibly be the worst money managers in the first world. We simply don't realize it because theres always more "oil in the ground" or "fish in the sea" to replace the funds we squander and not to mention our number 1 trading partner can (for the moment) print all the money they need to pay us. If Canada properly managed it's resources, we'd all be living like kings. Instead we've opted to "sell the pond, instead of the fish" and at bargain basement rates at that. From the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVBDwAuCdPw">actual issuance of our currency</a>, to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14214771">oilsands</a>, to our <a href="http://www.globalenergywatch.com/news/984/Canada_sells_nuclear_energy_firm_to_SNC-Lavalin.htm">nuclear industry</a> it is safe to say that Canada is "For Sale" and it is through these bottom basement price sales that Canada has been able to lie about the amount of foreign business we are loosing due to global economic circumstances. <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/next-domino-fall-canada">At least up until now</a>.<br />
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Canada, we are a country in economic denial. Time to face reality.<br />
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<div align="center"><object height="277" width="370"><param name="movie" value="http://rt.com/s/swf/player5.4.swf?file=http://rt.com/files/programs/keiser-report/quantitative-easing-energy-crisis/keizer-report.flv&image=http://rt.com/files/programs/keiser-report/quantitative-easing-energy-crisis/quantitative-easing-energy-crisis.jpg&skin=http://rt.com/s/css/player_skin.zip&provider=http&abouttext=Russia%20Today&aboutlink=http://rt.com&autostart=false"></param><embed src="http://rt.com/s/swf/player5.4.swf?file=http://rt.com/files/programs/keiser-report/quantitative-easing-energy-crisis/keizer-report.flv&image=http://rt.com/files/programs/keiser-report/quantitative-easing-energy-crisis/quantitative-easing-energy-crisis.jpg&skin=http://rt.com/s/css/player_skin.zip&provider=http&abouttext=Russia%20Today&aboutlink=http://rt.com&autostart=false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="370" height="277" /></object></div>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-89487433472160059642011-08-09T00:04:00.009-06:002011-08-17T17:43:08.522-06:00A rundown on Alberta's futureSo the deed is done, the U.S. has now officially been rated AA+ for an entire trading day during which the <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0809/1224302093640.html">S&P took the ratings axe to many U.S. institutions</a>. Many people who have read this blog probably look at it with an overly negative outlook. Please now look back at all of my posts and notice they revolve around two themes. The price of oil & the collapse of the USD. <br />
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I've been clear about three things in particular:<br />
1) The USD will collapse.<br />
2) The price of oil will not rise continually enough to sustain the oil sands developments, and the failing America's will not be able to afford it.<br />
3) Alberta's failure will be due to lack of diversification or having all of our eggs in a failing market.<br />
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They are really not complex principles. Hard to believe maybe.. back in April, or March. Or if you followed me on Facebook before I moved to twitter/this blog for the two years on there in Canadians for an Energy Revolution. But are they hard to believe now?<br />
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I have to tell you all, I'm pissed. I do not write about these issues to be a "downer". I write about them because NOBODY is discussing them. I don't *want* Alberta to fail, but it WILL fail unless we address these issues now, TODAY. For over two years I have been posting news, writing blogs, emailing the legislature and parliament, and nobody wants to address a U.S.A. failure and the implications on Canada.<br />
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I don't have solutions for you. I'm not going to lay out any plans for you to follow. This is a job for the community to do. The communities around Alberta collectively need to discuss the very real and imminent problems in the economy that will be caused by maintaining the oil sands projects. They need to figure out how to adapt their economies away from an <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+drop+threatens+oilsands+megaprojects/5224477/story.html">industry that puts multiple projects on hold if the price drops</a>. This "stop and go" mentality is my main reasoning for my <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/05/oilsands-optimism-on-downslide.html">negative outlook</a> on oil sands production capacity along with the three points above.<br />
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Extreme oil price volatility will be a fact of life now until 1 of 2 things happen:<br />
1) U.S.A. stabilizes (won't happen) <br />
2) USD is dropped as the reserve currency of the world. I've written a bit about this scenario <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/05/canadas-economy-good-bad-and-bullshit.html">here</a>.<br />
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And Edmonton, for god's sake stop bothering with the stupid arena project already. Does our city counsel not understand that the world has big problems on it's doorstep? Canada is not invincible, <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/05/canadas-economy-good-bad-and-bullshit.html">it may seem so now but as I've said before we will be near the bottom of the list of countries affected. This is because we won't see a massive drop in revenue until our trade partners can't afford the costs involved. At this point, we will be hit fast and hard</a>.<br />
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A chain-reaction is happening right now, as I write this. The last support in the U.S.A. economic house of cards has fallen and <a href="http://hellberta.blogspot.com/2011/08/conflict-over-ethical-oil.html">the debt collapse I spoke of on Friday is underway</a>.<br />
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* Update | 08/09/2011: Seems that <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/OPEC+cuts+demand+growth+forecast+economy/5227919/story.html">OPEC has now revised it's oil demand outlook downward once again</a>. One of the reasons cited is the cost of oil hampering economic growth. Look back to point 2, The price of oil will not rise continually enough to sustain the oil sands developments, and the failing America's will not be able to afford it.<br />
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* Update | 11/09/2011: MSM articles about Canada's U.S. dependent economy are starting to emerge ( <a href="http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/sinking-exports-widen-canada-trade-deficit-in-june?ocid=tweet">article1</a>, <a href="http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/insight/us-perils-spell-tough-canadian-times-4?ocid=tweet">article2</a> ). It's only a matter of time now before the truth is obvious and in our faces.<br />
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* Update | 17/09/2011: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUYMO2Iu3GA&feature=feedu">Will Canadian oil go to China instead of the U.S.</a>? What Stefan doesn't understand in this interview is that it is not "individuals" from China investing in oilsands. It is the government of China investing. All oil in China is state run.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-25858331910877233722011-08-05T14:54:00.006-06:002011-09-10T14:45:30.702-06:00A conflict over ethical oilBy now anyone who follows energy, economics, or the environment has probably heard the term "ethical oil". If you are not familiar with it; it was coined by <a href="http://twitter.com/#%21/ezralevant">Ezra Levant</a> in his book <a href="http://www.amazon.ca/Ethical-Oil-Case-Canadas-Sands/dp/0771046413/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1283992814&sr=1-1">Ethical Oil: The Case for Canada's Oil Sands</a>. It also coined a lesser known term "conflict oil".<br />
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Recently a <a href="htp://www.ethicaloil.org/">new blog</a> came to my attention which was influenced by Ezra's book and it's causing quite the stir amongst environmental groups not sure how to counteract the image being portrayed. This image or argument is essentially that right now society requires oil, so would you rather get this oil from unstable, civil rights violating dictatorships or from friendly democratic Canada. This argument is painted for you in colorful contrasting advertisements which pop up on the blog showing the clear contrast between "life" and "death" (green or orange), along with exaggerated images to reinforce the idealism. A happy worker in a green field for "life", and a destroyed oil excavation site with Hugo Chavez imposed over top for "death" for instance.<br />
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Inside the site is scattered with cherry picked statistics, such as the employment statistics for nearby native communities. It is certainly a clever ploy by Big Oil which more or less renders the environmental aspect and argument moot as no matter what anyone says regarding environmental impact the response has become "well would you rather have 'ethical oil' or 'conflict oil'?". Clever indeed.<br />
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What the website fails to mention however is that as long as we have dependence on oil the world will always require conflict oil. Lets put this in perspective, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/oil-production-and-consumption">here is a chart showing world oil consumption and production</a>. Do you see the spread between European oil usage and production? How about for North America? Never-mind even about Asia-Pacific, but consider it none-the-less. For this argument we will not look at it as we don't need to. So roughly from that chart, you could say that if Europe and North America didn't import (or export), production would need to increase by what? 20million/day? 30million/day? Well according to <a href="http://www.capp.ca/aboutUs/mediaCentre/NewsReleases/Pages/2010-Oil-Forecast.aspx#CPhCRDpQl4V7">Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers</a> Canada's total production in 2010 was 2.8million barrels / day. By 2025 they estimate 4.3!!! (Keep in mind, this is the oil industries estimates, not the *REAL* numbers.).<br />
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So here is what I ask you Ezra, how is your argument for Canadian oil relevant at all? The world doesn't just need oil, the world needs conflict oil. There is no magic bullet to make that not so, and no amount of Canadian ethical oil (rated at 1.5million barrels / day in 2010 (World usage = at least 85 / day)) will change that. Do you know why Ezra? Because unlike ethical oil, conflict oil doesn't need $100 / barrel to pretend a profit is coming in.<br />
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The oil sands are environmentally damaging and are not financially viable. We don't even know what the untold costs in environment and water usage are. They will never ever ever add up to more than a drop in the world oil usage bucket, because production is inefficient. It requires too much energy to make a barrel of low-quality "oil" from these projects of last resort. Remember when $70 / barrel was "expensive" and enough to make Alberta a profit? What happened to that? now we need $100. What happened is the input costs caught up with the output costs, and we don't want to know what happens if a sudden market move drops oil well below the input costs as it takes time for those price fluctuations to reach production. In other words the oilsands *only* bring in profit during sudden upward market moves in oil up until the time input costs rise due to the cost of oil. Get it?<br />
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Conflict oil vs. Ethical Oil is a straw-man argument. The infinite growth economy doesn't care how many people die to fuel it, or how much of the environment is destroyed. All it cares about is fueling more growth, which needs more resources, or the debt pyramid we've sold our kids into will collapse on our heads. You've been warned.<br />
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PS: <a href="http://vimeo.com/19863733">Here is another reason to not buy into ethical oil vs. conflict oil</a>.<br />
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* Updated | 08/08/2011: Well it's Monday now. The U.S. S&P downgrade has taken effect in the market; and what do you know, <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+drop+threatens+oilsands+megaprojects/5224477/story.html">this appears in my twitter feed</a>. Yea, wow. Amazing I know. Get it yet? The oil sands are a MONEY LOOSER. The price CAN NOT climb forever. What is worse: we are selling our resources short, without our own stock or "strategic petroleum reserve". That's right, we have no SPR.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-15894727871478010812011-07-29T13:21:00.003-06:002011-09-11T16:31:52.084-06:00The next Alberta economic boom will be funded by faithGood day to you Albertans. I haven't written on this blog for quite awhile, in fact I wasn't even sure if I was ever going to blog again. Things are moving too fast now to really spend any significant time on a particular subject however I feel Alberta's economy needs some special attention right now.<br />
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Just recently I saw an article proudly displayed on every frontpage: <a href="http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/Alberta+tops+June+creation/5132906/story.html">Alberta tops U.S. job creation</a>. Apparently Alberta's job market grew by 22,000 jobs where as the ENTIRE united states only recorded 18,000. Naturally Albertans rejoiced, claiming that boom times were back and economic growth was on the way. Further it seems to be not a reason to be concerned but instead put even more faith the Alberta government is right "waiting for oil & gas revenue to rebound". Anyone remember Ed-TV almost 3 years ago? Anyone remember Alberta's "5 year economic action plan"? Yea, I didn't think so, apparently 3 years into this plan we are still on step 1 "waiting for oil & gas revenues to rebound". So lets look at when they will be rebounding.<br />
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Who buys our oil? Who is our largest trading partner? Well it happens to be the U.S. The same U.S. that had the remarkable drop in job numbers, and now today <a href="http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/poor-economic-data-sends-canadian-dollar-down-1?ocid=tweet">GDP data just kicked the U.S. while already down</a>. One has to wonder exactly where all of this expected economic growth is going to come from? U.S. oil demand continues to stagnate, and lets be honest about how much time it takes for oil infrastructure to be set up for any profitable sales to China or other cross-continental markets. A long time. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14214771">China certainly is pursuing this option though</a>, and you can trust that China (the largest slave-wage market) really has Albertan's jobs and wages at heart.<br />
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Just wait for the day in the very near future where Alberta says "hmm, we really didn't see this coming". Because they will, of this I have no doubt. The forgotten 5-year plan will be revived and extended into a "10 year plan" and by the time Albertan's and the Alberta government take the global economic situation seriously we will not have the funds to do anything about it.<br />
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The new Alberta boom is based entirely on faith that Alberta "always has a boom". We simply expect economic booms to be thrown our way, and when we are not in one we are waiting for the next. There is no world-economic data to show any signs of a coming boom for Alberta. Yes, we had more jobs than the U.S., so what? That means a whole bunch of our clients will soon not afford our product. 18,000 jobs for an entire country is dismal, it does not point to an Alberta job boom, it points to a U.S.A. mega-economic failure and this will surely affect the Albertan economy in the not-to-distant future. Faith alone can't sustain us anymore.<br />Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4506292444966633451.post-61408474179730048672011-05-31T13:57:00.052-06:002011-08-11T19:55:30.607-06:00Oilsands optimism on the downslide<div style="border: medium none;"><div style="border: medium none;"><div style="border: medium none;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihbFFsGhxVGot8x5hrR93qR8mps2obnerpFZJL1JAy5e8XFrK1o8ZBKE6yDsdNjQl6meC6j9lEcJMuCIkjtuwwJPftzcGeRo7uD_Ko7enirdupADtS4-Y9EH2yYTL1lk6tBWuCk24isnWS/s1600/peak-generation-oilsands.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihbFFsGhxVGot8x5hrR93qR8mps2obnerpFZJL1JAy5e8XFrK1o8ZBKE6yDsdNjQl6meC6j9lEcJMuCIkjtuwwJPftzcGeRo7uD_Ko7enirdupADtS4-Y9EH2yYTL1lk6tBWuCk24isnWS/s400/peak-generation-oilsands.bmp" t8="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #666666;">canada.com</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="border: medium none;">The oilsands continue to take public relations hits across the globe. Just recently <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/TransCanada+shuts+Keystone+line+leak/4867953/story.html">the Keystone pipeline leaked</a> yet again making for the forth pipeline leak in relation to oilsands pipelines in the last 2 months, 2 of which occured in Alberta. In the midst of all of the bad public relations it seems a very important long term trend has been overlooked: Canada has significantly decreased it's expected oilsands output.</div></div><div style="border: medium none;"><div style="border: medium none;"><br />
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</div></div><div style="border: medium none;">In 2005 the alberta government released a video of their current plans for Alberta's oil economy:</div><br />
<div align="center"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Y_jOBURovPM" width="425"></iframe></div><br />
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The video makes an estimate that Canadian oil output will be 5million barrels per day by 2030, however just recently the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/may/31/oil-sands-oil?CMP=twt_gu">Guardian released an article about Canadian oilsands</a> which contains an interesting little blurb:<br />
<div><blockquote><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small;">Output will increase five-fold to 5m barrels of dirty oil a day by 2040.</span></blockquote>Now obviously this author is biased against oilsands oil, and in being so could have his facts wrong. He doesn't source where this output estimate comes from. If he is correct however, that means in the last 6 years, Alberta (and Canada) have significantly lowered their output expectations.<br />
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Going by Alberta's original video, over a period of 25 years we would see gains of about 140000 barrels per year. But if the 2040 estimation can be believed we will be seeing a yearly increase of only 100000 barrels per year over a period of 29 years. (Calculations based off 1.5m barrels / day in 2005, 2m barrels / day today). <br />
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So what could this indicate? Well for one, it indicates that prior to 2008 economic turbulence probably was not considered by the Alberta Government. Indeed their attitude at the time was "We're in a boom, we have money, it'll never end!", well until it did end that is. It tells us that Canada is overly-optimistic of their production capacity during a time when the input costs are an unknown (the gas and water and electricity needed to power the oilsands operations). <br />
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With an estimate of 5m barrels by 2040, I am now forced to lower my estimates of a peak of 3.5m barrels in 2020 to 3m barrels in 2015. We'll never reach the 5million mark, as oil price lead depressions will destroy demand as soon as any sort of production ramps up, causing the sorts of shutdowns we saw in 2008/2009.<br />
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Alberta, you need a new plan, and Canada: we'll never become an energy super-power if we expect to get our energy from the energy intensive, unstable, and fiscally impossible oilsands industry.<br />
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* Update: Changed calculation results from fractions to whole barrels produced.</div>Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15473265775588031435noreply@blogger.com0